Unless Washington and Tehran suddenly reach an agreement, the flames of war should flare up again, and probably very soon. The US may prefer short-term attacks, but the next round of conflict will be difficult to resolve quickly: Tehran believes that only large-scale retaliation can force the war to end. If Washington takes the lead, it can decide how to start the next round of conflict, but it cannot influence how far the conflict will go. Iran is preparing for wider and longer-lasting retaliation. This means that in this protracted conflict, a new round of fighting will affect more targets and bring greater economic costs.

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