Zhitong Finance App learned that on November 3, the World Gold Council released the “China Gold Demand Trend Report” for the third quarter of 2026. In the third quarter, the total demand for gold in the Chinese market (including gold jewellery, gold bars, gold ETFs and industrial gold) totaled 192 tons, up 12% year on year and 23% month on month. The net inflow of China's gold ETF in the quarter was 27 tons, reversing the net outflow of the second quarter (-22 tons). Despite a 26% month-on-month decline in the second quarter, which was particularly strong, demand for gold bars and coins remained healthy, growing 7% to 79 tons year over year. Gold jewellery consumption rebounded 30% month-on-month to 66 tons. The total value of the sector reached RMB 60.8 billion, which is significantly higher than the average of RMB 55.2 billion over the past decade. The Central Bank of China's cumulative gold purchases in the third quarter reached 63 tons, the highest quarterly increase in four years.
Gold demand in the Chinese market improved in the third quarter
Retail gold demand in various sectors of the Chinese market (in terms of tonnage and amount)
Outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026
Gold jewellery consumption is expected to continue its seasonal recovery in the fourth quarter. As consumers gradually adapt to the gold value-added tax adjustment policy implemented at the end of 2025 and the current level of gold prices, if gold prices do not fluctuate greatly and enter the peak consumption season at the end of the year, demand for jewellery is expected to be further boosted. The Association expects that hard pure gold products and high-end ancient gold series will continue to be favored by the market.
Demand for gold investment is expected to remain strong. Rising global geopolitical uncertainty, declining domestic bond yields, and other unequal asset performance factors are expected to continue to benefit gold investment. If the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings, it will further strengthen investor confidence.
Jewellery requirements
China's jewellery demand recovered from the low consumption season in the second quarter, increasing 30% month-on-month to 66 tons in the third quarter.
This round of recovery was mainly driven by seasonal factors, but performance varied significantly from month to month. July was originally a low season for traditional consumption, and overall demand was sluggish; gold prices continued to rise in August, weakening consumer purchasing power, and jewellery consumption was still weak.
The market situation improved markedly in September: the fall in gold prices prompted retailers to prepare for the peak sales season in the fourth quarter; terminal jewellery consumption also picked up seasonally — the pullback in gold prices further supported consumption; the centralized launch of new products and the holding of multiple jewellery fairs in September also boosted upstream demand.
Improved purchasing power and seasonal factors
Jointly drive a month-on-month recovery in jewellery demand in the third quarter
Quarterly jewellery demand and gold purchasing power index
Despite seasonal recovery, demand for jewellery fell 22% year on year in the third quarter, the weakest third quarter performance since 2006: additional costs due to gold value-added tax compounded high gold prices, weakening consumers' purchasing power; economic growth slowed and the real estate market continued to be under pressure, suppressing consumer confidence and curbing spending on non-essential consumer goods.
Affected by multiple factors, cumulative demand for gold jewelry fell 27% year on year to 202 tons in the first nine months of this year, also hitting a 19-year low.
However, judging from the perspective of the amount spent, jewellery consumption still showed strong resilience. Consumer spending on jewellery reached RMB 60.8 billion in the third quarter, up 23% month-on-month, and only slightly down 9% year-on-year.
The trend of differentiation between tonnage and consumption amount continues to show: the tonnage consumption of jewellery is far below the long-term average, while the amount spent is higher than the historical average.
Significant differentiation between the tonnage and the amount spent on jewellery
Gold jewelry tonnage demand
Significant differentiation between the tonnage and the amount spent on jewellery
Gold jewelry spending amount
The domestic jewellery market continues the established development trend, and market polarization is still obvious. The integration of retail channels continues to advance, and the slowdown in terminal inventory turnover has increased the operating pressure on retailers. However, hard and pure gold products, particularly those with diamonds, colored gemstones and enamels, or vintage or trendy styles, continue to be favored by young consumers.
Although these products are more expensive, they can satisfy consumers' self-expression and emotional value demands, and the products weigh less, making them relatively “wallet-friendly” for consumers.
At the same time, heavy gold jewelry with lower labor costs has also regained market attention. It performed particularly well during the September gold price correction period, and is sought after by consumers who balance investment value with aesthetic requirements.
This differentiation highlights the increasing level of market segmentation: the market covers models dominated by lightweight design, high-end jewelry focusing on exquisite craftsmanship, and basic gold jewelry categories with investment attributes.
Looking to the future
Gold jewellery consumption is expected to improve seasonally in the fourth quarter. The National Day holiday in early October kicked off this traditional peak sales season. Pre-holiday gold price adjustments, combined with retailers' promotional activities such as discounts, etc., to stimulate consumer procurement. The characteristics of product selection differentiation mentioned earlier are also evident. The association predicts that the pattern of differentiation between gold jewellery tonnage demand and consumption amount will continue in the fourth quarter.
However, without significant fluctuations in gold prices, the recovery in gold tonnage demand may be higher than previously anticipated as consumers gradually adapt to the current gold price level and the new VAT policy.
Hard pure gold products will continue to perform well, in addition to the peak consumption season at the end of the year, especially categories that meet the emotional value demands of young consumers.
Investment requirements Gold bars and coins
Domestic gold bar and coin investment demand remained strong in the third quarter, reaching 79 tons, an increase of 7% over the previous year. Despite a strong 26% month-on-month decline in the second quarter, cumulative demand has reached 393 tons since the beginning of the year: the domestic stock market fell sharply in the third quarter, and treasury bond yields continued to decline, providing support for investors' strategic decisions to allocate gold; the People's Bank of China continued to issue gold purchase announcements, which also boosted the retail market's willingness to buy gold.
Year-to-date demand for gold bars reached a record high for the same period
Gold bar and coin investment demand and ten-year average in the 1st to 3rd quarter
Gold bar and coin investors' buying decisions this quarter had obvious tactical considerations. Demand was relatively sluggish in July; buying heated up in August as gold prices rose; September was the month with the highest demand this quarter, and investors saw the pullback in gold prices as a better time to enter the market. Overall, when the price of gold fluctuates, it often attracts some Chinese gold bar and coin investors to act.
Gold ETF
China's gold ETF achieved a net inflow of 26 billion yuan (a total of 3.9 billion US dollars) in the third quarter, reversing the capital outflow trend in the second quarter and the fourth highest quarterly net inflow performance in history. By the end of the quarter, the total asset management scale (AUM) of gold ETFs had increased 13% month-on-month to 278 billion yuan (US$41 billion); holdings increased by 27 tons to 304 tons, just 2 tons from the historical peak on March 18, 2026.
Gold ETFs recorded a monthly net inflow of capital in the third quarter. Combining the factors affecting the capital flow of gold ETFs in China, the Association believes that the core driving factors that attracted investors to reallocate gold ETFs include: a trending downward recovery in gold prices in the second quarter and subsequent pullbacks to attract bargains; the sharp decline in the stock market boosted safe-haven demand, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index experienced the worst quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2022; treasury bond yields continued to decline, reducing the opportunity cost of domestic investors to hold gold assets; the central bank continued to issue gold purchase announcements to boost investors' willingness to allocate more gold assets.
From January to September, China's gold ETF holdings increased by a total of 56 tons, the second-highest performance in history for the same period; the total asset management scale (AUM) of gold ETFs increased 14% in the first three quarters.
China's gold ETFs clearly showed a net inflow in the third quarter
China Gold ETF Quarterly Demand
Looking to the future
Demand for gold investment is expected to remain strong in the fourth quarter. Fluctuations in gold prices may cause monthly demand to show uneven characteristics, but against the backdrop of intensifying geographical conflicts, declining domestic yields, and scarcity of high-quality alternative investment targets, safe-haven demand for gold will continue to attract investors' attention.
If the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings, it will further strengthen investor confidence. Seasonal factors such as year-end self-rewards and holiday gifts will also support the purchase demand for physical gold bars and coins.
Central bank purchases
In the third quarter, the People's Bank of China announced a 63-ton increase in gold holdings, the highest since the third quarter of 2022. The central bank has achieved a net increase in gold holdings for eight consecutive quarters. By the end of September, China's official gold reserves had increased to 2,410 tons, accounting for 8.5% of total foreign exchange reserves. Since the beginning of 2026, China's official gold reserves have increased by a total of 103 tons, making it one of the most active central banks in the world in 2026.
Unlike the previous cycle of increasing reserves, recent fluctuations in gold prices have hardly changed the pace of gold purchases by the official sector. Over the past eight quarters, China has increased its gold holdings by 145 tons. On the contrary, the downward phase of gold prices created a good opportunity to enter the market, and did not curb the purchase of gold. This highlights the long-term strategic nature of the diversified allocation of China's foreign exchange reserves. Continued official gold purchases also send an important signal to domestic investors. Many investors will pay close attention to the central bank's gold purchase trends when making gold investment decisions.
The pace of purchasing funds by China's official departments accelerated in the third quarter
