-+ 0.00%
-+ 0.00%
-+ 0.00%
AMD Forecasts 66% Q4 Growth on AI Chip Demand: Rapid Earnings Reaction
Share
Listen to the news

Key Points

  • AMD's data center business now brings in nearly two-thirds of total revenue.

  • Management expects fourth-quarter sales of about $17 billion, a sharp step up from this quarter.

  • Free cash flow fell as the company stocked up on inventory and took on more debt.

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) grew third-quarter revenue 45% to a record $13.4 billion as data center sales nearly doubled. Shares rose about 6.5% in after-hours trading. AMD expects growth to speed up to roughly 66% next quarter, but it is spending heavily to get there, and cash hasn't caught up with profits yet.

Key numbers

  • Revenue: $13.4 billion, up 45% year over year.
  • Data Center revenue: $8.5 billion, up 97%.
  • Diluted EPS: $1.46 GAAP, up 95%; $2.09 adjusted, up 74%.
  • Free cash flow: $554 million, down from about $1.5 billion.

What it means

Data center growth is lifting profits faster than sales. Chip design costs stay fairly fixed, so each extra dollar of GPU and server CPU sales drops mostly to profit. That pushed GAAP operating margin up 7 points from a year ago.

Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

The catch is cash. AMD added about $3 billion of inventory in the quarter as it builds Helios rack systems and Venice chips for its fourth-quarter ramp. It also borrowed heavily, more than doubling its debt since June. If those products ship on schedule, the cash comes back, but if demand slips, AMD is left holding a lot of expensive stock.

GAAP profit also took a $1.1 billion hit tied to warrants AMD issued to certain customers. The charge rises with AMD's share price, so a strong stock can shrink reported earnings. The release doesn't say how many warrants are outstanding.

What to watch next

Track whether fourth-quarter revenue lands near the guided $17 billion and inventory starts turning into cash. Also watch whether adjusted gross margin holds near the guided 55% as rack-scale systems ramp.

David Kretzmann has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the author only. It does not represent the opinion of Webull, nor should it be viewed as an indication that Webull either agrees with or confirms the truthfulness or accuracy of the information. It should not be considered as investment advice from Webull or anyone else, nor should it be used as the basis of any investment decision.
What's Trending