Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Macerich reports after market close, meaning Day 0 captures anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 reflects the market's first full session to digest the actual numbers.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | -$0.25 (-0.97%) | $0.47 (1.82%) | -$0.23 (-0.90%) | $0.76 (2.98%) |
| 2026-05-06 | +$0.73 (+3.40%) | $0.75 (3.47%) | -$0.86 (-3.87%) | $0.80 (3.62%) |
| 2026-02-18 | +$0.36 (+1.92%) | $0.45 (2.39%) | +$0.62 (+3.24%) | $1.16 (6.03%) |
| 2025-11-04 | +$0.36 (+2.08%) | $0.63 (3.63%) | -$0.03 (-0.17%) | $0.67 (3.76%) |
| 2025-08-11 | -$0.03 (-0.18%) | $0.36 (2.19%) | +$0.77 (+4.62%) | $1.09 (6.54%) |
| 2025-05-12 | +$1.56 (+10.41%) | $1.97 (13.15%) | -$0.47 (-2.84%) | $0.59 (3.57%) |
| 2025-02-27 | -$1.80 (-8.95%) | $2.71 (13.47%) | -$0.28 (-1.53%) | $1.08 (5.90%) |
| 2024-11-06 | -$0.33 (-1.74%) | $2.19 (11.56%) | +$0.69 (+3.71%) | $0.87 (4.65%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 3.70% | 6.46% | 2.61% | 4.63% |
Historically, MAC exhibits moderate post-earnings volatility, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 3.70% and Day +1 move of 2.61%. The Day 0 range averages 6.46%, indicating significant intraday swings as traders position ahead of the release, while the Day +1 range of 4.63% reflects follow-through after the numbers drop.
The most dramatic recent move came in May 2025, when the stock surged +10.41% on Day 0, only to give back -2.84% the following session—a pattern suggesting initial euphoria followed by profit-taking. Conversely, February 2025 saw a sharp -8.95% Day 0 decline, with a modest -1.53% Day +1 follow-through, indicating sustained negative sentiment. More recent reports have been calmer: the August 2026 release produced a -0.97% Day 0 move and -0.90% Day +1, while November 2025 saw +2.08% Day 0 and -0.17% Day +1—both relatively muted reactions.
Investors should expect a mid-single-digit percentage move in either direction, with the potential for larger swings if results or guidance significantly surprise. The historical data suggests that initial reactions can be exaggerated, particularly on Day 0, with Day +1 often providing a more measured assessment once analysts and institutional investors weigh in.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 11/20/26 (DTE 17) |
| Expected Move | $0.60 (2.44%) |
| Expected Range | $24.14 to $25.34 |
| Implied Volatility | 44.29% |
The options market is pricing in an expected move of 2.44% (±$0.60) by the November 20 expiration, below the historical average Day 0 move of 3.70% and Day +1 move of 2.61%. This suggests options traders are anticipating a relatively subdued reaction compared to past earnings events, possibly reflecting confidence in the recent beat streak or reduced uncertainty around the company's near-term trajectory. However, the historical Day 0 range of 6.46% indicates the potential for intraday volatility that exceeds the implied move, particularly if results or guidance deviate meaningfully from expectations.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment on Macerich is strongly bullish, with 13 of 17 analysts rating the stock a Strong Buy, zero Moderate Buys, 3 Holds, and 1 Strong Sell. The average recommendation of 4.41 (on a 1–5 scale where 5 is Strong Buy) reflects broad confidence in the company's turnaround potential. The consensus price target stands at $26.38, implying +6.6% upside from the current price of $24.74. The range of targets is wide, spanning from a low of $20.00 to a high of $30.00, underscoring divergent views on the stock's risk-reward profile.
Sentiment has improved over the past month, with the number of Strong Buy ratings increasing from 12 to 13. This uptick suggests growing analyst conviction, likely driven by the company's three consecutive earnings beats and progress on the Path Forward deleveraging plan. However, the presence of one Strong Sell rating and three Holds indicates that not all analysts are convinced—concerns about debt stress at South Plains Mall and Twenty Ninth Street, high short interest at 17%, and below-average business quality metrics continue to weigh on some assessments.
The +6.6% implied upside to the consensus target is modest, particularly given the stock's +37.85% year-to-date gain through November 2, 2026, which has significantly outpaced the S&P 500's +10.97% return over the same period. This suggests much of the bullish thesis may already be priced in, and the upcoming earnings report will be critical in determining whether the stock can push toward the higher end of the target range or faces a pullback if results disappoint. Piper Sandler's recent target reduction from $30 to $26—while maintaining an Overweight rating—reflects this recalibration, as analysts balance optimism about the strategic plan with caution about execution risks and valuation.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion for MAC currently stands at 56% Buy, up from 40% Buy one week ago and 8% Buy one month ago, signaling a sharp improvement in technical momentum heading into earnings. This rapid strengthening suggests growing bullish conviction among technical traders, likely driven by the stock's recent price action and positioning above key moving averages.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal indicates near-term momentum is positive but not overwhelming, reflecting some caution ahead of the earnings release
- Medium-term (Hold): Neutral reading suggests consolidation in the intermediate timeframe, with the stock digesting recent gains
- Long-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal reflects robust strength in the longer-term trend, consistent with the stock's year-to-date outperformance
Trend Characteristics: The trend is characterized by Soft strength with Average direction, suggesting momentum is building but lacks the conviction of a full-blown breakout—an environment where earnings results could serve as the catalyst for either acceleration or reversal.
The stock is trading at $24.74, positioned above all major moving averages: the 5-day ($24.41), 10-day ($24.18), 20-day ($23.38), 50-day ($23.15), 100-day ($24.10), and 200-day ($22.30). This alignment is technically constructive, indicating that both short-term and long-term trends are supportive. The stock has climbed steadily from its 52-week low of $16.03 and is approaching its 52-week high of $26.68, leaving limited room to the upside before encountering resistance.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $24.41 | 50-Day MA | $23.15 |
| 10-Day MA | $24.18 | 100-Day MA | $24.10 |
| 20-Day MA | $23.38 | 200-Day MA | $22.30 |
Key technical levels to watch include the $26.68 52-week high, which represents the next major resistance zone, and the 50-day moving average at $23.15, which would serve as initial support in the event of a post-earnings pullback. The stock's position above all moving averages and the improving Barchart Technical Opinion suggest the setup is supportive heading into earnings, but the proximity to the 52-week high and the "Soft" trend strength indicate limited margin for error. A strong beat with positive guidance could propel the stock toward the high end of the analyst target range, while a miss or cautious outlook could trigger profit-taking given the year-to-date gains already banked. The technical picture favors bulls, but the risk-reward is balanced—investors should be prepared for volatility in either direction.