Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Red Violet reports after market close, meaning Day 0 captures anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 reflects the market's first full session to digest the actual numbers.

Historical price action shows RDVT typically delivers volatile post-earnings moves, with an average absolute Day +1 move of 7.73% and trading ranges averaging 10.10% in the session following results. The most recent earnings cycle in August 2026 was relatively muted with an 8.48% gain on Day +1, but prior reports have produced dramatic swings—May 2026 saw a 12.59% surge, while November 2025 jumped 8.97% and May 2025 rocketed 15.20% higher.

The pattern reveals RDVT tends to gap up on strong results, with six of the past eight reports producing positive Day +1 moves. The largest reactions have coincided with the company's most significant earnings beats: the May 2025 report that beat by 160% generated a 15% rally, while the March 2026 beat of 46% produced a more modest 1.71% gain, suggesting the market may have already anticipated strength. Day 0 moves average 3.70%, indicating some anticipatory positioning, but the real action occurs Day +1 when results are fully digested. Investors should prepare for potential 8-12% swings based on whether RDVT delivers another substantial beat or merely meets the conservative consensus.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing a 4.81% expected move through the November 20th expiration, implying a range of $75.76 to $83.41. This is notably below the stock's average historical Day +1 move of 7.73% and well under the 10.10% average trading range following earnings, suggesting options traders may be underpricing potential volatility. Given RDVT's history of significant post-earnings swings—particularly the 8-15% rallies following strong beats—the current options pricing appears conservative and could present opportunity for volatility strategies.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy consensus on Red Violet with an average rating of 4.20 out of 5.0, though sentiment has recently deteriorated from 4.60 a month ago. The Street is divided between 2 Strong Buys, 2 Moderate Buys, and 1 Hold, with no sell ratings. The average price target of $84.50 implies just 6.2% upside from the current price of $79.58, with estimates ranging from a low of $73.00 to a high of $90.00.

The recent shift in sentiment reflects some profit-taking after RDVT's strong rally, with at least one analyst downgrading from Strong Buy to Hold in October as the stock approached the high end of target ranges. Zacks Research specifically moved to a Hold rating on October 20th, citing valuation concerns after the sharp advance. However, other firms including those setting the $90 high target maintain conviction that the company's growth trajectory justifies premium multiples.

The 6.2% implied upside to the consensus target is modest for a high-growth technology stock, suggesting analysts believe much of the near-term appreciation is already reflected in the current price. However, this conservative stance may prove overly cautious if RDVT delivers another significant earnings beat and raises guidance—the pattern of 40-50% beats over recent quarters implies actual earnings power may be running well ahead of Street models. A strong Q3 report could prompt meaningful target increases, particularly from the more bullish analysts in the Strong Buy camp.

Part 4: Technical Picture

The Barchart Technical Opinion shows 100% Buy currently, maintaining the same strong bullish signal from both last week and last month, indicating sustained positive momentum heading into earnings. The stock is trading at $79.58, positioned near its 52-week high of $83.15 and well above the 52-week low of $33.40, reflecting the powerful 39% year-to-date rally.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal indicates robust near-term momentum with the stock holding above all key moving averages
• Medium-term (100% Buy): Continued bullish reading confirms the intermediate-term uptrend remains intact with no signs of deterioration
• Long-term (100% Buy): Maximum buy signal reflects the stock's sustained advance above its 200-day moving average, establishing a solid long-term uptrend

Trend Characteristics: The Strong strength combined with Average direction suggests RDVT is in a well-established uptrend with consistent momentum rather than parabolic acceleration, providing a stable technical foundation heading into the earnings event.

The moving average structure is constructive, with the stock trading above its 20-day ($78.65), 50-day ($76.95), 100-day ($70.93), and 200-day ($57.26) averages, though it has pulled back slightly below the 5-day ($80.03) and 10-day ($79.90) averages in recent sessions. This minor consolidation near highs is healthy after the extended rally and suggests the stock is digesting gains rather than breaking down.

Key resistance sits at the $83.15 52-week high, just 4.5% above current levels, while the rising 20-day moving average at $78.65 provides near-term support. The tight clustering of short-term moving averages around the current price indicates a coiling pattern that could produce a sharp breakout on strong earnings results. The overall technical setup is supportive for earnings, with the stock in a confirmed uptrend across all timeframes and holding above key support levels. However, the proximity to 52-week highs means RDVT will need to deliver a significant beat to break out to new highs—merely meeting expectations could trigger profit-taking given the extended rally and recent analyst downgrades. The risk/reward appears balanced: strong results could propel the stock toward the $90 high price target, while a disappointment could see a test of the 50-day moving average near $77.