According to Woofun AI, the relative value trend of Bitcoin and gold is sending a warning signal to the risky asset market. Mike McGlone, chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, pointed out that a decline in this ratio may indicate that a wide range of asset classes, including technology stocks, are facing adjustment pressure.
McGlone thoroughly analyzed the linkage between the Bitcoin and gold price ratios and the Nasdaq 100 index, and warned investors not to expect too much about the market rebound after the midterm elections. According to data from the 31st of last month, the value of 1 bitcoin is only about 20 ounces of gold. McGlone emphasized that the 20x ratio constituted an important market watershed, and the subsequent trend was more inclined to fall 15 times rather than climb to 25 times. This ratio essentially measures the number of ounces of gold that can be converted into a single Bitcoin, and its decline directly reflects Bitcoin's relative weakness. Looking back at 2021, Bitcoin significantly outperformed gold, driven by large-scale monetary easing and a low interest rate environment;
However, although Bitcoin's 260-day standard deviation over the past 5 years is about 3 times that of gold, showing higher volatility, it has not continued to reap excessive profits as a result. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the current transaction price of Bitcoin is 77,237 US dollars/piece, and gold is 3,947.22 US dollars per ounce. The weakening ratio under this price structure profoundly reflects the cooling of investors' risk appetite. Gold's appeal as a safe asset increased relatively when the ratio was difficult to maintain at 20 times, putting downward pressure on technology stocks. McGlone believes that if the US stock market falls this week, Bitcoin and assets such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, which have previously risen sharply this year, may further intensify their downward trend.
This analysis does not assert that prices are bound to fall, but rather suggests that the market should focus more on preparing for potential adjustments rather than blindly optimistic about post-election stock price increases. This is an important reassessment of the crypto asset valuation system by traditional safe-haven logic following a shift in macro-liquidity expectations.