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Citigroup: Amgen (AMGN.US) diversified business growth offsets the decline in sales of desulumab products and the implementation of R&D pipelines will determine future prospects
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The Zhitong Finance App learned that after the US stock market on November 3 (Tuesday), Amgen (AMGN.US) announced the results for the third quarter of 2026. Financial reports show that third-quarter revenue was US$10.365 billion, up 8% year on year, higher than market expectations of about US$10.05 billion to US$10.07 billion. In terms of earnings, non-GAAP earnings per share were $6.45, up 14% year over year, higher than expected $5.77-5.79; non-GAAP operating margin was 47.3%, up 0.2 percentage points year over year; and free cash flow was US$3.7 billion (US$4.2 billion in the same period last year).

Product sales for the quarter were US$9.883 billion, up 8% year over year. The six key growth products combined increased 27% year over year, accounting for more than 70% of product sales. Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE, UPLIZNA, BLINCYTO, and IMDELLTRA all achieved double-digit growth. A total of 17 products had annualized sales of more than $1 billion in the third quarter.

Citi pointed out in a research report released after Anjin's performance that Repatha (revenue of 1.1 billion US dollars; higher than expectations of 46 million US dollars; increase of 37% year over year) is still the clearest growth highlight, thanks to its continued penetration in the fields of cardiology and primary care. Meanwhile, Evenity (revenue of $751 million; higher than expectations of $24 million), Uplizna (revenue of $451 million; higher than expectations of $71 million), and Imdelltra (revenue of $406 million; higher than expectations of $79 million) also provided additional growth impetus for the company. Tepezza (revenue of $526 million; lower than expectations of $66 million; down 6% year over year) was adversely affected by inventory removal. Prolia (revenue of US$632 million; lower than forecast of US$48 million) and Xgeva (revenue of US$288 million; lower than estimate of US$39 million) continued to decline in revenue (down 45% and 47% year-on-year, respectively) due to declining sales volume and net sales prices after biosimilars were marketed. However, the company's product portfolio is still diversified enough to absorb short-term pressure.

Amgen also raised its guidance for the full year of 2026. The total revenue forecast was raised to US$38.9 billion to US$39.7 billion (previously US$38.2 billion to US$39.4 billion), and the non-GAAP earnings per share forecast was raised to US$22.90-23.70 (previously US$22.30-23.50).

Citi believes that Amgen's increase in annual performance guidance has further strengthened the market's confidence in its ability to execute commercialization, but its forward valuation multiples are increasingly dependent on whether the R&D pipeline can deliver on expectations. In fact, despite the good momentum of Repatha, the oncology business, and the rare disease business, the uncertainty associated with Lp (a), as well as the empty window before MariTide phase III clinical data was released, made the bank remain cautious. Citi maintains a “neutral” rating for Amgen, with a target price of $405.

Citi said 1) The diversification of product portfolios continues to absorb the impact of declining revenue from desulumab products. Among them, Repatha and rare diseases businesses are the main drivers of growth. 2) Core growth engines remained stable, with Repatha, Evenity, Tezspire, Uplizna, Blincyto, and Imdelltra all achieving strong sales performance. 3) Compared with the implementation of quarterly results, the impact of dazodalibep, OLPASiran, and Maritide on the company's forward valuation multiples is more significant.

According to reports, Amgen reported three phase III positive results in the third quarter. DazodaliBEP reached the main end point in the phase III OASIS-301 study of systemic dry syndrome. The monthly administration group improved 5.6 points from the baseline, 5.2 points for the quarterly administration group (1.8 points and 1.4 points, respectively, after placebo correction), and reached key secondary endpoints such as dry mouth reported by patients; the second phase III study on symptomatic patients is expected to be read within the year. Management emphasized that the two groups were enrolled separately and “difficult to directly extrapolate from the 301 study to the 303 study”. TEZSPIRE simultaneously achieved the two main endpoints of histological remission and swallowing symptoms in the phase III study of eosinophilic esophagitis, and the efficacy was maintained for 52 weeks. Daxdilimab reached the primary end point in both dose groups in the discoid lupus erythematosus phase II study and will advance to phase III. In the field of weight loss, MariTide's MariTide Phase III program completed enrolment in two studies of sleep apnea and the cardiovascular outcome study this quarter, and initiated the first of three type 2 diabetes phase III studies; the company said MariTide is expected to be the first weight loss treatment that requires only 4 to 6 injections per year with monthly administration, and is currently conducting research on household autoinjector pens.

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