The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that it maintains the Jiumaojiu (09922) “Recommended” rating and predicts net profit of 1.44/2.05/248 million yuan in 26/27/28. The PE corresponding to the current market value is 7/5/4x, respectively. Considering the company's same-store recovery and improvement, referring to comparable company and liquidity discounts, the target price will be 7 times PE for 27 years, with a target price of HK$1.25. Taier's continued growth in mainland China and the accelerated implementation of the “fresh” model are the main highlights of the company's current business restoration; further improvements and the performance of the new Jiumaojiu model during the National Day provided a positive signal for subsequent recovery.
The views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:
matters
Jiumaojiu issued the latest operating performance announcement for the third quarter of 2026. The operating performance of major brands was divided. Taier's own store is the same store; the same store as the Jiumaojiu brand's own store is still under pressure. In terms of store structure, while optimizing the brand layout, we continue to promote the upgrade of Taiji's “fresh” model and the new Jiumaojiu model.
Taier's mainland stores continue to be repaired, and brand and regional performance is divided
In 2026Q3, the average daily sales of Taier's own stores in mainland China increased 10.4% year on year, but driven by a 17.4% year-on-year decline in same stores in other regions, Taier's overall same-store growth rate was 5.1%, down from 7.4% in the first half of the year. The Jiumaojiu restaurant fell 26.8% year on year, up from 22.9% in the first half of the year. The results of the management adjustment remain to be seen; the Jiumaojiu brand same store fell 11.4% year on year, which is basically the same as in the first half of the year.
The increase in Taier customer flow led to same-store growth, and per capita consumption remained relatively stable
In 2026Q3, the turnover rate of Tai'er self-operated stores was 3.8 times per day, including 3.8 times per day in mainland China and 3.7 times per day in other regions; 2.0 times per day and 2.3 times per day for self-operated restaurants in Jiumaojiu, respectively. In terms of per capita consumption, Taier's self-operated stores were 73 yuan, including 66 yuan in mainland China and 151 yuan in other regions; the self-operated restaurants in Jiumaojiu were 104 yuan and 58 yuan respectively. Per capita consumption in the mainland of Taier has remained relatively stable. The increase in same-store sales in the mainland is mainly driven by improved customer flow, reflecting the positive effects of product and store model adjustments on consumer attractiveness.
In terms of store structure, the Group continues to optimize the brand layout
As of the end of September 2026, the Group had 584 stores (including franchisees), a net decrease of 60 from 644 at the beginning of the year. Among them, Taiji had 462 companies, a net decrease of 37 companies from 499 at the beginning of the year, including 439 self-operated companies and 23 franchisees; 48 hot pot companies, a net decrease of 14 from 62 at the beginning of the year; and Jiumaoji59, a net decrease of 4 companies from 63 at the beginning of the year, including 57 self-operated companies and 2 franchisees. The total number of other brands was 15, a net decrease of 5 from the beginning of the year. While optimizing the restaurant network, the company continues to upgrade Taiji's “fresh” model.
The “fresh” model continues to iterate, and the National Day performance has further improved
By the end of September, Tai'er had a total of 358 “fresh” stores in mainland China, covering 90 core cities, of which the “6.0 Fresh Mode” had already been launched. During the National Day, the average daily sales volume of Taier's mainland stores increased 17.8% year-on-year. The overall turnover rate was more than 5 times per day. The “fresh” model stores performed better, indicating that store upgrades had a positive effect on business restoration.
The new Jiumaojiu model is beginning to bear fruit, but the promotion effect still needs to be verified
During the National Day, the average daily sales of “Jiumaojiu · Shanxi Restaurant” achieved double-digit year-on-year growth in comparable stores, which was superior to the overall performance of the Jiumaojiu brand, which initially showed the potential of the new model to improve operations.
Risk warning: competition in the catering industry intensifies; promotion of new store models falls short of expectations; food safety issues.