Crude Slips Back Below Its 20 Day as Nat Gas Sets a New Low and Bounces
Barchart·5d ago
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Top 3 Things to Watch into the Energy Close
December crude at the 20 day, $97.45: A settlement back above it would mark the pullback as contained and could reopen $98.69. A settlement below today’s $94.60 low could open $92.90 and the 50 day at $92.28.
Inventories and the talks: Confirmation of a fifth straight crude draw could lift December back toward $97.45. Signs of progress on the new proposals could press it toward $92.90.
December nat gas at $2.94: A settlement above Monday’s high would be the first sign the selling is slowing and could open $3.00. A settlement below today’s $2.84 low would extend the selloff into new territory.
Energy Cross Asset Note
Crude is sliding again as mixed signals on the talks meet a physical market that’s starting to loosen. Mediators have sent both sides fresh proposals, but Iran’s national security chief called the US response so far unsatisfactory, and the gaps on the blockade, sanctions, and Iran’s nuclear program remain wide. The president is signaling restraint, saying there are no immediate plans to strike, though the US is ready if needed. With the election now behind it, the administration may have more room to choose its next step, which keeps the risk premium unsettled in both directions. The bigger story may be supply. Middle East oil metrics show near-term supply outpacing demand for the first time since July, North Sea cargo prices have eased, and Saudi Arabia is maximizing output with exports from Ras Tanura rising alongside its Red Sea route. Russia is also shipping more crude even as its refineries ramp back up. US inventories are still drawing, with an industry estimate pointing to a 5.3 million barrel decline. If official data confirms it today, it would be a fifth straight weekly draw. Brent is still up more than 70% this year. In nat gas, the selling is starting to change producer behavior. Output has been cut by roughly 2.5 to 3.0 bcf/day, a rare winter curtailment, pushing Lower-48 production to its lowest since January and below last year’s level, with Appalachian cash prices near $1. That is lowering storage forecasts for later in the winter. Offsetting that, LNG feedgas dipped, exports to Mexico fell sharply, and warmth persists across the Midwest through mid-November. The next storage report is Thursday. For clients, crude has lost its 20 day for the first time since the October rally began, and with physical supply loosening, rallies may face more selling than they did in October. In nat gas, producers cutting output while funds hold a record short is a setup that can turn quickly. The trend is still lower, but this is a market to sell on rallies, not at the lows.
Crude Oil - The Setup
Crude Oil - The Technicals
CRUDE OIL
Current Price: December WTI (CLEZ26) $95.27, down $0.82 (0.85%) | Session high $97.15, low $94.60
Chart Setup
Tuesday’s bounce to $98.69 failed, and December settled at $96.09, its second straight close below the 20 day. This morning’s rally stalled at $97.15, just under the 20 day at $97.45, then rolled over to $94.60, the lowest since mid-October. December is now about $10.40 off Friday’s $104.99 high, and the 20 day has flipped from support to resistance. The next support sits near $92.90, the late-September high broken in October, with the rising 50 day at $92.28 just beneath it, two supports stacked within a dollar of each other.
Key Levels Above
$98.69 (Tuesday high)
$97.45 (20 day, with today’s high at $97.15)
$96.46 (Monday settle)
$96.09 (Tuesday settle)
$95.20 (Monday low, broken today)
Current Price: $95.27
Key Levels Below
$94.60 (today’s low)
$92.90 (late-September high, broken in October)
$92.28 (50 day)
$88.90 (top of the early-October base)
$86.41 (late-September double low)
Bias
The 20 day at $97.45 is the level to manage against, now from below. A settlement back above it would mark the pullback as contained and reopens $98.69. As long as December settles under it, rallies are working into resistance, and a settlement below today’s $94.60 low opens $92.90 and the 50 day at $92.28. For sidelined traders, sellers may get a better entry on a rally toward $97.45 than at the lows. Buyers may want to wait for the $92.28 to $92.90 area, where two supports stack.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.02.26)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December Crude Oil futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y
Natural Gas - The Setup
Natural Gas - The Technicals
NATURAL GAS
Current Price: December Natural Gas (NGEZ26) $2.90, flat | Session high $2.93, low $2.84
Chart Setup
December settled up 3.9 cents Tuesday at $2.90, its first higher close since October 28. Overnight it slipped to a new contract low at $2.84, then recovered to unchanged. Each new low over the past four sessions has been only a few cents and has been bought back, but price hasn’t cleared Monday’s $2.94 high either. Momentum remains oversold. The lower edge of the falling channel that has guided December since May is now near $3.08 and is the main resistance overhead. All four averages are well above price, with the 20 day at $3.21 below a falling 50 day at $3.36.
Key Levels Above
$3.08 (lower edge of the falling channel)
$3.00 (October 29 break)
$2.95 (October 29 settle)
$2.94 (Monday high)
$2.93 (today’s high)
Current Price: $2.90
Key Levels Below
$2.86 (Monday settle)
$2.85 (Monday and Tuesday lows)
$2.84 (today’s low, new contract low)
Bias
Monday’s $2.94 high is the level to manage against. A settlement above it would be the first sign the selling is slowing and opens $3.00, with the channel edge at $3.08 above that. A settlement below today’s $2.84 low extends the selloff into new territory with nothing underneath. For sidelined traders, the trend still points lower, but selling at the contract low carries poor risk. A rally into $3.00 to $3.08 gives sellers a better entry with risk defined above the channel edge.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.02.26)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December Natural Gas futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y
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