After 2 months of sideways trading, Hygea Healthcare (06078) once again ushered in a wave of “four consecutive years” of rising stock prices.
The Zhitong Finance App observed that on October 23, against the backdrop of continuous repurchases in the early stages compounded by the overall recovery of the Hong Kong medical sector, Haijia Healthcare's stock price went from a low jump to a one-sided upward trend throughout the day, showing a positive trend of bottoming out and reversal on the market.
Achieving a turnover of HK$15.6593 million and active external purchases in a single day also marks the end of the previous three consecutive negative downward trends in its stock price and confirmation of a reversal at the bottom, thus starting a new round of growth in Hygea Healthcare's stock price.
How far can a “restorative” stock price rebound go?
Judging from market performance since October 23, Hygea Healthcare's stock price has completed an accelerated upward trend within the range from fluctuating at the bottom to breaking through volume.
As mentioned above, the company's stock price broke out of a reversal positive line on October 23, successfully ending the previous three-day downward trend; driven by 59.2% of external buyers, its stock price continued to rise on October 26, and the two-day trend also formed a classic bottom combination of “reversing the positive line+contraction confirming the positive line”.
Although the share of external buyers of Hygeia Medical fell back to 44.3% on October 27, indicating a certain decline in bullish momentum, the company's stock price peaked for three periods from October 30 to November 4 after a narrow fluctuation and digestion on October 28 and 29.
In terms of quantitative performance, since October 23, the average daily trading volume of Hygea Healthcare shares reached 1.373 million shares, an increase of 1.37 times over the previous 20 days; the corresponding OBV index rose from -1.04 million to -517 million, with an increase of 48.5% within the range. The trend of sharp rise in volume and price is quite clear. Among them, Hygea's stock price broke through particularly clearly on November 3. When it closed up 4.03% on the same day, the single-day trading volume reached 2.084 million shares, which further confirmed the breakthrough signal in line with the positive market volume.
In terms of trend indicators, although Hygea Healthcare's stock price fluctuated in a narrow range on October 28 and 29, at the same time, the 5-day EMA crossed the 10th and 20th EMAs, and the three EMAs continued to slope upward after October 30, forming a confirmation of the trend structure.
In terms of the momentum index, on October 26, the MACD index of Hygeia Healthcare's stock price showed that its DIF line officially crossed the DEA to form a gold fork on the same day. This was also the first confirmation signal that the MACD bar continued to expand from its previous negative value to 0.18, which reflected the increasing upward momentum of the company's stock price day by day; in terms of the BOLL line index, the closing price of HK$10.20 on November 3 effectively broke through the BOLL line trajectory, and drove the BOLL bandwidth to expand from 5.98% to 8.89%. On the other hand, it has cross-verified the start of a trend in Hygea Healthcare's stock price.
With the bullish moving average arrangement, MACD's gold fork below the zero axis, and stock price volume breaking through BOLL's upward trajectory, the current stock price of Hygea Healthcare has apparently reached the beginning of an accelerated upward trend. Although multiple indicators such as RSI6, KDJ-J values, and CCI show simultaneous extreme overbought, this does not necessarily mean the beginning of a volatile downward trend.
Judging from the technical direction analysis, if subsequent stock price contractions fall back on the 5-day EMA or BOLL online track price and then gain support, or if the stock price directly breaks through the previous high of HK$10.26, Hygea Healthcare is expected to continue to boost the market after a short-term shock, and if the market is optimistic, it is more likely to break out of the main trending upward wave.
From fundamentals to valuation repair?
Recently, it coincided with the ESMO annual meeting and the intensive disclosure of Q3 financial reports. While the Hong Kong stock innovative drug sector ushered in structural opportunities after a sharp decline, it also ushered in passive and upward opportunities for underestimated medical service targets such as Hygea Medical to fix the trend.
Compared to Hong Kong stock innovation drugs and CXO targets that directly benefit from sector beta, the market pricing logic of Hygea Healthcare's current round of stock price increases is more of a difficult reversal framework of “cash flow harvesting period+shareholder return background+overfalling valuation repair”. Among them, the fundamental situation reflected by the company on the performance side has become an important anchor for current market pricing.
According to the Zhitong Finance App, in the 25H2 financial report, the company achieved revenue of 2.02 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5% over the previous month. Also, looking at medical services, the company's current number of patients was 2.4 million, an increase of 9.1% over the previous year; at the same time, the number of patients treated at the company's hospitals was 4.6 million throughout the year, an increase of 1.5% over the same period last year, showing that the number of visits to Haijia hospitals is still stable.
The key reason for this data is that it shows that the demand for medical treatment at Hygea Hospital was not affected, and the actual impact of the DRG payment reform on the company only led to a decline in the unit revenue of its hospitals. This was not a “fatal injury” for a company focusing on network expansion, cost control, and supply chain integration of the sinking hospital. In the 26H1 financial report, the above data also continues to be a key factor supporting Hygea's core values.
On the other hand, after focusing on the goodwill and asset depreciation accumulated in historical mergers and acquisitions in 2025, while achieving revenue of 4.09 billion yuan in that year, the corresponding net profit was only 162 million yuan, a sharp decrease from 598 million yuan in the same period last year, and this has become one of the main reasons for the decline in its stock price since August last year.
However, in the first half of 2026, the interim report showed that Haiji's current net profit rebounded to 257 million yuan. This figure was not only higher than the previous year, but also slightly higher than the same period in 2025. This also intuitively shows that after the one-time risk was cleared last year, the company's profit returned to a growth trajectory.
At the same time as profits increased and repaired, Hygea Healthcare's cash flow performance became an important part of the logical chain supporting its valuation repair. In fact, in 2025, the free cash flow disclosed in the company's annual report reached 470 million yuan, a sharp increase of 407.0% over the previous year, achieving a significant improvement in the cash revenue port; in fiscal year 26H1, the company's net operating cash flow was 459 million yuan, achieving a ratio of 178% to net profit, while the current free cash flow reached 296 million yuan, a sharp increase of 38.5% over the previous year, showing a high profit content.
Furthermore, in June of this year, Hygea announced that it will use about 500 million yuan per year for share repurchases and/or dividends for the next three fiscal years, compounding the orderly progress of the 2024 (200 million yuan) and 2025 (over 300 million yuan) repurchase plans, and the shareholder return mechanism continues to be strengthened. Furthermore, in May of this year, the company's founders also increased their holdings by 3.548 million shares, and their holdings have not been reduced since listing. The cumulative increase in holdings has exceeded 9.6 million shares, further strengthening market confidence.
In the past 90 days, 2 investment banks have just updated their research reports on Hygea Healthcare. The agency predicts that the company's net profit for the full year of 2026 is expected to reach about 52-530 million yuan, an increase of 215%-270% over the previous year, and the adjusted net profit compound growth rate is about 15%.
Based on the above reasons, both institutions gave Hygea buying ratings. The target average price was HK$15.83, which is about 55% upward compared to the company's closing price of HK$10.20 on November 4.