The Zhitong Finance App learned that Citi released a research report saying that the outlook for gold prices will depend on the development of the situation in the Middle East. Under the basic scenario, the indicative probability is 60%. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens before the end of 2026 and the conflict between Yemen and Saudi Arabia cools down, the bank expects gold prices to have significant upward potential. The target price for 0 to 3 months is 4,500 US dollars per ounce, and the target price for 6 to 12 months is 5,000 US dollars per ounce.

Citi pointed out that a clear decline in oil prices may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, drive demand for gold investment, and re-stimulate the momentum of the bullish market in gold. Furthermore, falling oil prices can also support gold purchases in emerging markets by increasing purchasing power.

Under a bull market scenario, the indicative probability is 10%. Citi assumes that the US and Iran reach an agreement quickly, and oil prices will drop significantly, driving the Federal Reserve to quickly shift to dovish, leading to a sharp weakening of the US dollar and a recovery in risk appetite across assets, and the price of gold may rise further.

Under a bear market scenario, the indicative probability is 30%. The bank expects the Strait of Hormuz to continue to be blocked. There is limited room for a further decline in gold prices at that time, and the minimum is likely to hit 3,500 US dollars per ounce.

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