• ICG expects the Iran war’s impact on energy prices to outweigh the lasting economic effects of the 2026 US midterm elections.
• Elevated energy prices could keep interest rates higher for longer, weakening growth and earnings in 2027.
• US bond market turmoil risks are rising as government interest payments reach around 20% of revenues, with little appetite for deficit reduction.
• Excluding AI investment, estimated US growth is trending around 1.5%, similar to Europe, while earnings remain resilient.
• Strong private-sector balance sheets keep systemic risks low, but weaker borrowers face increasing pressure from elevated interest rates and energy costs.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. ICG plc published the original content used to generate this news brief on November 05, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.