- On Holding is preparing to report its September quarter results, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.50 and revenue of $1.14b, alongside continued focus on premium sports footwear, apparel and accessories across wholesale and direct channels.
- The key operational thread is how On Holding balances higher expected sales, premium pricing and its growing direct to consumer mix, while maintaining cost discipline as it scales globally.
- The upcoming earnings release and revenue expectations may influence how investors view On Holding's investment narrative.
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On Holding Investment Narrative Recap
To own On Holding, you need to be comfortable with a premium sports brand that leans on high average selling prices, rapid direct to consumer growth and a wider product range across running, outdoor and lifestyle. The near term hinge is clear: execution in the September quarter and holiday season on full price sell through and cost control matters more than short term share moves.
The biggest operational risk right now is that aggressive store openings, marketing and technology projects like LightSpray add complexity faster than they add profitable volume. Recent share gains and a premium valuation do not change that core tension between funding expansion and protecting margins, so the earnings print is more a check in than a reset.
The upcoming November 10 earnings release is the news to watch. Analysts expect EPS of $0.50 on revenue of $1.14b, with commentary likely to focus on direct to consumer mix, regional trends in EMEA and Asia Pacific, and how On Holding is handling pricing in a competitive premium footwear market.
Short term, that report is a live catalyst because it tests whether higher sales, a richer channel mix and heavy investment can still support the margin story investors pay up for. A material miss on either profitability or outlook would highlight the risk that marketing, store rollout and manufacturing projects are running ahead of demand, while an in line or better print would support patience with the current expansion plan.
On Holding Long Term Assumptions And Valuation Setup
On Holding's long run story on paper is built around analysts modeling 18.5% yearly revenue growth over the next 3 years and profit margins moving from 12.3% today to 12.4% in 3 years. The same group expects earnings to reach CHF 661.8 million by 2029, compared with CHF 396.2 million today, with the most upbeat forecasts at CHF 773.1 million and the most cautious at CHF 519.0 million. That implies earnings would need to increase by about CHF 265.6 million from current levels to hit the consensus view, even before considering that the analyst framework also bakes in roughly 1.29% yearly growth in the share count.
On Holding's narrative projects CHF 5.4 billion revenue and CHF 661.8 million earnings by 2029. This requires 18.5% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about CHF 265.6 million from CHF 396.2 million today.
On the valuation side, analysts are effectively saying that for those 2029 numbers to make sense, investors would need to be comfortable with On Holding trading on a P/E of 24.0x those forecast earnings, compared with 24.6x today and against a US Luxury industry P/E of 17.4x. Their consensus price target sits at US$43.27 per share, with a wide range running from US$19.86 on the low end to US$71.12 at the top, and is 18.7% higher than the current US$35.19 share price cited in the report. For you, the practical takeaway is simple: any position in On Holding means deciding whether CHF 5.4b of revenue, CHF 661.8 million of earnings and a 24.0x multiple in 2029 feel realistic given your own expectations on pricing power, store expansion and direct to consumer growth.
Uncover why On Holding's fair value indicates a 12% potential upside to its current price that may not last much longer.
Exploring Other Perspectives
One alternate storyline around On Holding focuses on an upside catalyst. The most optimistic analysts were modeling revenue of about CHF 5.8b and earnings near CHF 775.7 million by 2029, paired with a higher 29.8x P/E. That view leans on stronger DTC and apparel momentum that the November 10 earnings print could either reinforce or challenge. Use this earnings release to weigh how your own expectations compare with both the consensus path and this more ambitious scenario that was set before the current news.
Explore 7 other On Holding fair value estimates, including one that suggests as much as 78% upside from the current price.
Reach Your Own Conclusion
Don't just follow the ticker; dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.
- A great starting point for your On Holding research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
- See our latest analysis for On Holding. The report includes a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual, the Snowflake, making it easy to evaluate On Holding's overall financial health at a glance.
Looking For More Investment Ideas Beyond On Holding?
If On Holding is just one piece of your watchlist, it can help to line it up against other companies with clear financial traits and different risk profiles. The Simply Wall St screener lets you scan wider across the market so you can test whether your capital is working hardest in On or somewhere else.
- If capital protection comes first for you, start with a basket of stocks that have relatively low risk scores by checking out the 31 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
- For investors who care most about strong finances and clean balance sheets, compare On Holding with companies in the list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (24 results).
- If you are hunting for higher income, line up On against companies offering stronger yields and resilient payouts using the 5 dividend fortresses.
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