South Bow (TSX:SOBO) reported third-quarter financial results on Thursday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.
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Summary
South Bow delivered solid financial performance in Q3 2026, with normalized EBITDA at $248 million and distributable cash flow at $187 million, marking a 7% increase due to a one-time favorable tax adjustment.
The company is progressing on the Prairie Connector project, targeting a mid-2027 Final Investment Decision (FID), with ongoing work on permitting, land acquisitions, and stakeholder engagement.
For 2027, South Bow forecasts normalized EBITDA of approximately $1.07 billion and distributable cash flow of about $630 million, expecting contributions from the Blackrod project and maintaining a strong focus on capital allocation.
Operationally, the company is lifting pressure restrictions on the Keystone pipeline, with expectations to continue into 2027, and monitoring transportation differentials to support demand.
Management highlighted the importance of achieving regulatory certainty for project investments and emphasized a disciplined approach to capital allocation while exploring organic growth opportunities across existing corridors.
Full Transcript
OPERATOR
Quarter 2026 results conference call and webcast. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised, and to withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded.
I would like now to turn the conference over to Martha Wilmot, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Martha Wilmot (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Michelle, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to South Bow’s third quarter 2026 earnings call. With me today are Bevin Wirzba, President and Chief Executive Officer, Van Dafoe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Richard Pryor, Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer. Before I turn it over to Bevan, I’d like to remind listeners that today’s remarks include forward-looking information and statements that are subject to the risks and uncertainties addressed in our public disclosure documents available under South Bow’s SEDAR+ profile and in South Bow’s filings with the SEC. Today’s discussion will also include non-GAAP financial measures and ratios that may not be comparable to those presented by other entities.
With that, I’ll turn it over to Bevan.
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. South Bow delivered another solid quarter reflecting the continued strength of our base business. Results were in line with expectations while we strengthened our financial position and advanced our growth portfolio. At the same time, the outlook for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin continues to strengthen. Production is growing and, importantly, our conversations with customers are becoming increasingly focused on how we can support those growth and expansion plans. We see the potential for a broader set of opportunities across our corridor, from additional connectivity and expansions to our existing infrastructure to larger-scale projects that can support the next meaningful phase of resource development in Western Canada.
That momentum reinforces what we heard through the Prairie Connector open season. As our customers look to grow production at scale, they need additional egress to established markets, they need inter-basin solutions, and they will need solutions that can be executed in the near term. Prairie Connector is an important part of how we can support that growth, and we continue to advance the project toward a targeted mid-2027 Final Investment Decision.
Alongside our partner, our teams are advancing a number of activities including permitting and land acquisitions, stakeholder engagement, execution planning, cost refinement, and financing arrangements. In parallel, we are working toward the regulatory certainty and permit durability needed to support an investment decision. As we said on our second quarter call, projects of this scale involve a number of interconnected work streams and we are making good progress across each of them. Some of that work involves complex and sensitive discussions that we are not in a position to address publicly at this stage. What I would emphasize is that our approach and investment discipline remain unchanged. We are executing the plan we laid out following our successful open season while continuing to evaluate the opportunity against the same criteria we apply to all our investments.
With that, I’ll hand it over to Richard to provide more detail on our integrity activities and operational performance.
Richard Pryor (Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer)
Thanks, Bevan. I’ll start with pipeline integrity and the continued progress we’re making on the remedial work associated with milepost 171. During the quarter, PHMSA approved our remedial work plan, and we continue to advance our inline inspection program using phased array ultrasonic technology, which is being validated through field integrity digs. Following internal engineering reviews, we have begun lifting pressure restrictions on certain segments of the Keystone pipeline.
We are encouraged by the continued progress and, consistent with what we’ve shared previously, we expect pressure restrictions to continue being lifted in phases through the end of this year and into 2027. Turning to operations, the third quarter played out largely as expected. As indicated on our last call, we anticipated activity on our U.S. Gulf Coast segment would be moderated from the strong levels we experienced in the second quarter as tighter pricing differentials and low Cushing inventories weighed on demand for capacity on MarketLink. We also completed significant inline inspection work during the quarter in support of the milepost 171 Remedial Work Plan.
This reduced available capacity but advanced the work required to remove pressure restrictions as we move into the fourth quarter. Transportation differentials have since widened from third-quarter levels, supporting stronger demand for capacity to finish the year. Looking further ahead, we continue to see a constructive setup for our corridor. Western Canadian crude oil production is growing and, while supply remains below total pipeline egress capacity today, we expect production growth to begin outpacing incremental egress additions later in 2027. Over time, that should support strong demand for uncommitted capacity on our Keystone system. With that, I’ll turn it over to Van to discuss our financial performance and outlook for 2027.
Van Dafoe (Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer)
Thanks, Richard. Our third quarter financial results were in line with our expectations and continue to demonstrate the strong cash generation of our business. We reported a normalized EBITDA of $248 million and distributable cash flow of $187 million, with distributable cash flow up 7% from supported by a one-time favorable tax adjustment. Given our strong performance so far this year, we’re increasing our 2026 distributable cash flow guidance by 4% to approximately $690 million.
Our normalized EBITDA outlook of approximately $1.04 billion remains unchanged. That performance continues to support our deleveraging priority. We exited the quarter with net debt of approximately $4.4 billion and leverage of 4.3 times normalized EBITDA. During the quarter, we also reduced absolute debt by repurchasing and extinguishing $320 million of senior unsecured notes with cash on hand. Turning to 2027, we expect the underlying strength and stability of our business to continue. We are guiding to normalized EBITDA of approximately $1.07 billion within a range of 2%. A key driver of the year-over-year increase will be Blackrod as cash flows associated with the project continue to ramp up and make a more meaningful contribution to South Bow’s results. Approximately 70% of the contribution will come from the oil lateral and will be recorded as normalized EBITDA, while the remaining 30% will come from the natural gas lateral and will be recorded as interest income.
The remainder of our outlook reflects the stability of our highly contracted base business, while the range around the normalized EBITDA captures variability in price differentials and the associated demand for uncommitted capacity. We expect to generate distributable cash flow of approximately $630 million in 2027 within a range of 4%. The year-over-year decrease primarily reflects higher expected current income taxes following the significant tax savings South Bow realized in 2026. For capital spending, we expect approximately $40 million of maintenance capital, plus or minus $10 million, and approximately $65 million of growth capital for pre-FID activities on Prairie Connector and Liberty Bridge.
We will evaluate accelerating certain pre-FID development spending as greater regulatory certainty and permit durability are achieved. At the same time, we expect to continue strengthening our financial position with net debt to normalized EBITDA declining modestly over the course of the year. Finally, our Board of Directors has approved our quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share. With that, I’ll turn it back to Bevan for closing remarks.
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Thanks, Van, and thanks, Richard. Before we open the line for questions, I want to come back to the broader picture. South Bow’s business is performing very well. We are strengthening our financial position, and the fundamentals supporting our corridor continue to move in a positive direction. Western Canadian production is growing, and our customers are increasingly looking toward the next phase of growth. That is creating opportunities across our corridor, from our existing footprint to the large-scale projects we are advancing.
Prairie Connector remains an important part of that opportunity set. We have strong customer and stakeholder support and we are making good progress across the work needed for a targeted mid-2027 Final Investment Decision, while remaining focused on achieving the conditions necessary to allocate capital with confidence. As we pursue these opportunities, our priorities remain unchanged. We will operate safely and responsibly, strengthen our balance sheet, and remain disciplined in how and where we invest shareholder capital.
That combination of a resilient base business and a growing opportunity set positions South Bow well for 2027 and beyond. Before we open the line for questions, I’d like to welcome Heather Chrislock, our new Chief Operating Officer who recently joined South Bow. We’re very pleased to have Heather on board. With that, I’ll turn it back to the operator for Q&A, with Van and Richard joining me for questions.
OPERATOR
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. The first question comes from Robert Hope, Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Robert Hope (Analyst)
Morning, everyone. So, good to see the Prairie Connector continuing to track to the mid-2027 FID. Can you add a little bit more color on what progress was made there over the last quarter, as well as kind of what goalposts the investment community should be looking for over the next couple quarters to ensure that you’re tracking towards that FID?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah. Thank you, Rob. You know, we’re progressing, as I mentioned in my remarks, on multiple fronts. And so, from permitting and land acquisitions, securing kind of more regulatory certainty as we go with discussions in both Canada and the United States, refining our execution plans, long-lead equipment strategies, all of that is moving forward in what you would normally anticipate. And so we’re really feeling good about the progress we’ve made. We’ve established the team; all of those kind of arrangements are moving forward great.
And then in terms of kind of milestones, obviously the permitting process, these are, you know, multi-quarter type activities that advance. Securing all the land, you know, that will be a milestone to look towards. And then obviously, you know, some form of certainty around permit durability is what we’re really, really focused on, and that’s what we need to see before we’ll allocate any more meaningful capital towards the project.
Robert Hope (Analyst)
Appreciate that. And then maybe diving a little bit deeper, if possible, on that concept of permit durability. How are the conversations with stakeholders both north and south of the border ongoing? Are they understanding of what conditions are required for South Bow to invest capital? Are they willing to accommodate that? Can you maybe just give us a little bit of incremental color on how those discussions are going?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah, Rob, stepping back, what’s fundamental, and I meant in my comments saying that the fundamentals remain strong. And I think the fundamentals around energy security in both Canada and the US are very aligned. And because of that alignment, we’re seeing from stakeholders that they understand that we need that certainty to move forward. I’ve said pretty clearly that those conversations are pretty complex and they’re very sensitive. And so we’re not going to be able to share any specific details around how we’re advancing on that front.
But I can say that I don’t think that there’s any kind of, you know, I think we’re pretty aligned on what we need and governments understand what we’re looking for in order to allocate capital. This is, you know, a project that is very meaningful for both countries and we’re hopeful that we can move that forward here in the next few quarters.
Rob
Appreciate that. Thank you.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And our next question is going to come from Sam Burwell with Jefferies. Your line’s open.
Sam Burwell (Analyst)
Hey, guys. Good morning. I guess shifting away from that a little bit of the organic opportunities that you guys are evaluating. So you put that in the press release. Could those be things that are tied fairly closely to Prairie or this maybe be a desire to diversify a little bit away from that and go after projects maybe elsewhere along the system?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah, Sam, since our investor day just over a year ago, we said we’d be advancing organic opportunities across our system. And we’re very encouraged to see that that portfolio of opportunities is maturing. We’re maturing opportunities that are south of the border that are clearly not connected to Prairie Connector. And then with the increased growth that we’re seeing into Alberta, it’s directly tied to our existing corridors, which is also part of the strategy.
Our second capital allocation priority was to leverage the pre-invested capital that we already have in our corridors and that includes our inter-Alberta assets. So quite a number of things maturing and hope we can share some more on that over the next few quarters as well as these projects advance.
Sam Burwell (Analyst)
Okay, great. And obviously I understand that you guys reiterated the mid 27 FID target and Van mentioned that you’d probably want some more certainty around the permit durability before more capital gets budgeted pre-FID. So what I’m curious about is do you need certainty on permit durability in the form of a backstop or whatnot a certain time before that mid 27 FID target such that you can make firm orders for long lead items and things like that, or is there maybe some underrated flexibility within that framework?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yes, Sam, I’d say we’re evaluating a number of alternatives of how to move the project forward. You know, clearly to take FID we need the certainty around permit durability. We need permits in place and the like. The timing of achieving that permit durability just basically alters, you know, the path forward of what time frame we move it forward. If we get earlier, earlier acknowledgement or earlier definition of what that looks like, that might allow us to expose a bit more capital ahead of an FID.
But at this point, we’re just remaining very firm on our discipline around capital allocation and not going to expose capital that has risks that we wouldn’t want our shareholders to take.
Sam Burwell (Analyst)
Got it. Thank you, Bevin.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And the next question will come from Maurice Choi with RBC Capital. Your line’s open.
Maurice Choi (Analyst)
Thank you. And good morning everyone. I just want to dive deeper into this exact same topic about major projects. Speaking more pointedly about the US election, what do you think the results mean for your projects? I assume the path to delivering the projects remain open, but does the Democrat-controlled Congress change your available options for permit durability?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah, Maurice, you know, if you take a look at, you know, stepping back from the election results themselves, the fundamentals that underpin our business haven’t changed. You know, Canadian production is at record levels and continues to grow. You know, a lot of quarters just got released and our customers are suggesting that growth is continuing. They’re in very strong financial positions with their balance sheets. And the demand from the refining markets really hasn’t changed either.
They remain very strong. There was even an announcement of an idled refinery being brought back into service. So strengthening the demand fundamentals in the Gulf Coast. So we’ve always maintained, I think through South Bow and even Legacy previous to that, that we build our business agnostic to the administrations that are in place in states and provinces and federally. And you know, the results of the midterms will obviously have some effects broadly, but they don’t really affect our strategy and they don’t affect the plans that we have going forward.
Maurice Choi (Analyst)
That’s crystal clear. Thank you very much. And maybe just a quick one on the outlook. Obviously Richard mentioned that the diffs have widened in Q4. So that underpins some possibly good results for Q4. But for 2027, could you comment on the assumptions you have on diffs as well as volumes for both the base Keystone and MarketLink?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah, I’ll start, Maurice, but I’ll pass it over to Richard. We just took to our board our budget for next year and a lot of things that we had to contemplate in, you know, obviously the supply growth that we’re seeing from our customers, egress optionality, some of our peers have added some capacity impacting, you know, take away an egress out of the basin. But you know, the macro with, you know, the Iran war and volumes building up in the Gulf have impacted our outlook.
And I’ll turn it over to Richard to give you some high-level observations of what we’re looking for next year in terms of volumes.
Richard Pryor (Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer)
Sure, yeah. And maybe I’d just start by, you know, we’re only talking about a small portion of our business. You know, 90% plus of our throughput is contracted and that will continue to flow and we expect that’ll, that’ll show up day to day, you know. But when you look at the outlook for next year, like we looking at the overall pricing dynamics and fundamentals like we don’t forecast based on events or outliers, I’d say that we have some tailwinds. We see growing production in Alberta. We expect sometime in 2027 that’s going to firm up and production will probably outstrip even some of the incremental egress capacity that’s coming on. So that will create demand for the Keystone.
I think we’re going to see inventories start to be replaced at some point in the future, whether that be at the Cushing hub or in the Gulf Coast with the SPR starting to drop back in some of the inventories that were utilized over the past year, and then some of these shipping dynamics, vessel transportation rates that we’re seeing in the Gulf Coast, I think at some point those will normalize and when we see those normalize, that will, I think, return to more exports coming out of the Gulf and that will also continue to help pull more barrels through our corridor.
So that’s generally how we frame our outlook for next year.
Maurice Choi (Analyst)
Understood. Thank you very much. And my congratulations to you, Richard, and obviously to Heather as well on the new appointments.
OPERATOR
Thank you. Thank you. And the next question will come from Robert Kiteler with CIBC. Your line is open.
Robert Kiteler (Analyst)
Good morning. You’re getting pretty close to your intended leverage target. So in light of that, how are you viewing capital allocation, for example? You know, as you approach that leverage target, you also have some potentially significant projects ahead of you. You’re likely to wait for those to materialize before deciding what to do next. And similar to that, do you have any plans for further debt repurchases?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah, Robert, I’ll start, but Van’s really the owner of our balance sheet. But at the high level, our capital allocation principles remain intact. You know, we believe and continue to believe that reaching our leverage target is very important irrespective of how we move the business forward. It’s also accretive to the equity investor to have lower interest payments and we’ve had some debt repayments already. Second, you know, on capital allocation, per my answer to a previous question, we’ve been maturing a number of opportunities in the background organically that are going well.
So we’ve built up our capacity now with BlackRock coming on, being able to allocate north of $175 million per year of free cash flow after paying our interest and dividends to allocate that to growth CapEx. And so we’ve built a nice balance on the balance sheet. But over to you, Van, in terms of more on the capital structure and debt repayment.
Van Dafoe (Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer)
Sure, yeah. So when we spun, we came out at five times debt to EBITDA and we talked about getting down to four kind of in the 2028, 2029 timeframe. That has accelerated. So if you look at your assumptions in your model with the $65 million of growth capital, you’re probably getting there by the end of the year. Obviously that $65 million is just pre-FID Prairie Connector, so a lot can change. And so once we get to FID, then we’ll see where our debt will obviously not end up at the four times.
So as we get to FID, we will think about how we were going to finance Prairie Connector with debt, other debt repurchases. We have a note coming due in August of ’27 of $600 million. We have just over $500 million of cash on hand. So again, we likely won’t purchase more debt and we’ll look to refinance or pay down that August note, depending again, what happens with Prairie Connector.
Robert Kiteler (Analyst)
Yeah, that makes sense. And then just last one for me, I’m just curious on what you think PHMSA needs to see in order to lift the pressure restrictions.
Richard Pryor (Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer)
Yeah, it’s Richard. So we, PHMSA approved our remedial work plan, and we’ve been in very close dialogue with PHMSA over the last year. And I think we’ve got a, we’ve got a very good idea. Like we, we have a plan A submitted that, you know, and approved that involves the use of, you know, inline inspection technology. This is the ultrasonics, you know, paired with field verifications and correlations. You know, so far that work is going very well and we’re optimistic that we’ll get through that sometime in 2027.
So I think we’ve got a pretty clear approach currently with PHMSA. And maybe one thing that, just while I’m on the topic, I would say that we are really pleased with what we’re seeing and what we’re finding with this new tool technology. The results are correlating very well between what the tool is showing and what we’re seeing in the field. And so this is only just improving our confidence and our understanding of what we have in terms of our pipeline system and our ability to maintain integrity and to continue safe operations in the future.
Robert Kiteler (Analyst)
That’s great. Thank you.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And the next question will come from Aaron McNeil with TD Cowen. Your line is open.
Aaron McNeil (Analyst)
Hey. Morning all. Thanks for taking my questions, Bevin. Or maybe Van. I’m not sure. Prairie Connector was showcased at the Canada Investment Summit in September. Is there anything interesting that came out of that process in terms of, you know, potential financing structures or ways to fund the project?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah, Aaron, you know, we submitted the information on our project, and I would say we didn’t really need that much advertising with respect to our plans on Prairie Connector, just given the history and the scale of the initiative. And so we’ve been in active dialogue across the capital markets with infrastructure sponsors, strategics and others. And so, you know, we’re happy to be a part of it, but really that was just part of our broader set of conversations that we’re already engaged with.
So nothing in particular came out of it other than just reinforcing our key messages on the project.
Aaron McNeil (Analyst)
Okay, fair enough. And then just following up on the sort of organic opportunities you mentioned that are maturing across all your existing corridors. Could you potentially have a competing use of capital by the time you get to a potential Prairie Connector FID in mid-2027, and how would that sort of factor into the investment decision for the big one?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah, absolutely. We have, at the outset of spin, indicated that we believed we could generate organic opportunities across our portfolio and we have a certain amount of free cash flow to fund those. We will not turn away accretive opportunities for our shareholders that we believe we can execute within our risk preferences. Van and team have evaluated, and I think we pointed out in our investor day last year, all the different colors of the rainbow of different finance choices that we have.
Notably, first is cash on our balance sheet, which we’ve been growing. And so as projects compete, we’ll look at that full capital structure to make sure that we can advance all of what we think meet the criteria against our capital allocation priorities.
Aaron McNeil (Analyst)
Okay, great. Thanks everybody. I’ll turn it back.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And our next question will come from AJ O’Donnell with TPH Research. Your line is open.
AJ O’Donnell (Analyst)
Hey, morning everyone. Just one for me today as most of my other questions were kind of already asked, but just thinking about the deadline for the MOU kind of quickly approaching, if that agreement does get signed and there’s some more clarity around Western Canada growth over the next few years, how are you thinking about a potential upsize in Prairie Connector? Is there potential to see maybe an additional open season unlock before the official FID, or is that way further down the path?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah, A.J., you know the MOU discussions, I know from talking with our customers, those are very active dialogues. You could imagine they’re extremely complex and there’s a lot going on. They’re trying to develop certainty around their own growth projects. I would say that we would not contemplate an open season ahead of FID, and we wouldn’t anticipate that there’d be demand for us to do that ahead of FID from our customers, as even with a settled MOU, it’s going to take time for our customers to develop their long-term plans with respect to growth.
They’re all well aware of the optionality that we have to expand, and we’ve pre-wired conditions for that to occur. So our job is to work towards the conditions to get to an FID. And that’s our first priority.
AJ O’Donnell (Analyst)
Good. Thanks, Bevin. I’ll turn it back.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And our next question will come from Benjamin Pham with BMO. Your line is open.
Benjamin Pham (Analyst)
Hi. Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to start off a more detailed question. The 2027 growth capex, the 65 million, appears to be largely pre-equity spending for Prairie Connector. Can you confirm that 65 million? Is that most stakeholder cost or spending? Is there deposits you’re putting on steel in that? And another question I had, too, is as you think about the capital spend for Prairie Connector post FID, how should we think about the scale of that?
Does it really ramp up quite quickly in the second half of 2027 and then also is quite high in 2028?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah. Thank you, Ben. So with the 65 million, that’s primarily—I mentioned in an earlier response that we have multiple pathways that we’re pursuing on the project and, subject to when we can achieve permit durability and how that will adjust that timeframe. The 65 million is primarily around the activities that I highlighted that we’ve been advancing, really on the permitting and the land acquisition side—things to continue to move the project forward where we’re ensuring that we can advance the project in a very timely fashion.
Once we secure permit durability or the conditions around that, then that number largely will expand the profile, to your second part of the question. In terms of how does it look in ’27–’28, I would say it’s a fairly steady ramp-up. Obviously the first things to spend would be the long-lead equipment orders, as you point out. So no, we have not made any steel purchases to date. We’re looking at all of the kind of critical path items that we would need to acquire. But really your early spend is on the equipment orders, and then it ramps into field execution and is kind of a steady increase all the way through to completion, and then post-construction reclamation costs in the post.
So our team—Van and team—have been looking at the financing strategy around that on the balance post FID. And once we achieve FID, we’ll provide real clarity to shareholders in terms of our cost estimate outlook, our schedule, strategy and execution plan. Those details will all be revealed at an FID timeframe.
Benjamin Pham (Analyst)
Okay, got it, thank you. And maybe a broader question on project economics. You’ve highlighted the attractive build multiple on all your opportunities before. Can you comment directly—did that change at all for the better, for the worse? And how do you think about organic growth returns, inorganic, and also adding Prairie Connector in there as well?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah, Ben, we’re remaining disciplined on our capital allocation. The costs—I mentioned one of the key activities that we’re doing is just refining our costs, and cost refinement really comes from your execution strategy, just thinking through different ways to do the project more efficiently going forward. And so we haven’t seen any material change to our ability to deliver within our stated kind of investment requirements of that six to eight times.
We’ve seen different—for example, the AI and data center buildout has put a higher emphasis on things that are electrical, have become more critical in terms of accelerating or making sure that we have the right supply chain strategy to secure those elements. So there’s been some ebbs and flows but nothing that would change that. I think the thing that our underwriting case really is strong is that we’ve been able to commercialize 465,000 barrels a day.
That allows us to lift the project, and then we have a tremendous opportunity to expand all the way through to a million barrels a day with low capital and very capital-efficient pump station additions in the future.
Benjamin Pham (Analyst)
Okay, got it. Thank you, that’s very helpful.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And our next question will come from John McKay with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
John McKay (Analyst)
Hey team, thank you for the time. My two questions might be maybe clarifications of earlier ones, but just on the first one, going back to the broader conversation around Basin egress, when you’re thinking about opportunities on the intra-Alberta side, the next Blackrod, etc., are you hearing from your customers that they are waiting to get clarity there before they’re moving forward, or do you think we could see some more lateral-type projects announced before we know exactly what the egress will look like?
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
John? I’d say it’s a mix. Certainly when we became open for business as a liquids pipeline and we flagged Blackrod, that already precipitated a lot of different discussions from other operators looking to get service into Alberta. We developed the Prairie Connector project actually really targeted at the optimization of the basin without the need of an MOU, with our customers indicating that they had the ability to expand with new solvent technology, with well-pair design, with different thermal activities—that they could grow their positions by 10%.
And so if you look at about a 4 million barrel a day base oil sands business today, expanding by 10% just happens to be what Prairie Connector looks like: 465,000 barrels a day. So our base strategy going forward is to address that near-term production growth that we’re seeing and see very dramatically. Line of sight to that doesn’t need any other further kind of regulatory or other conditions to advance, and then we’re set up really well for the long-term kind of growth projects that will emerge post MOU for greenfield production.
John McKay (Analyst)
That makes sense. Thank you for that. Second one for me, Bevin, just going back to your comments earlier around evaluating different options to move Prairie Connector forward, I guess I just wanted to clarify: does that include changes in scope or route or anything on that kind of physical side? Or were your comments more on permitting process, general process towards FID, etc.? Just to clarify. Thanks.
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah, thanks for the clarifying question. We chose the Prairie Connector route and strategy with our partner Bridger on the three projects to leverage the existing corridors that we have in those three projects. So we’re not making any changes with respect to the execution strategy around routing, et cetera. There are some very key advantages in each of the three projects that would continue to encourage us to pursue the path that we’ve taken. I would say that the broader strategies that we’re looking to in terms of securing the development going forward are just trying to—we’re in a constant dialogue of what are the available programs and things that we can take advantage of to find that security we need to allocate capital at an FID. And those are things that we just can’t talk to at this point in time because of the nature of those conversations.
John McKay (Analyst)
No, understood. That makes sense. Thank you.
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Thanks, John.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And the next question will come from Sumantra Banerjee with UBS. Your line’s open.
Sumantra Banerjee (Analyst)
Hi, good morning and thanks for taking the question. Just curious, as you’re evaluating your next organic growth opportunities, if there’s any high-level takeaways or learnings from getting Blackrod completed that you could apply to the next project.
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
So I’ll start, and I don’t know, Richard, if you have any direct comments. I think what we learned—my highest-level learning is, and I mentioned it in my previous response—is that we’re open for business and, you know, listening to what our customers want and providing them the solution that works for them. We can be competitive, and we’ve proved we can be competitive.
Richard Pryor (Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer)
I’d just say that what we were able to utilize on Blackrod that made that a successful commercial venture is where we can utilize existing capacity or existing corridors—places where we have existing permits—that puts us in a position where we can compete and have successfully been able to secure some business. And so when I look going forward, I think that’s the type of opportunity that we’re highly focused on developing.
Sumantra Banerjee (Analyst)
Got it. That makes sense. Thank you so much. I’ll turn it over.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And the next question is going to come from Theresa Chin with Barclays. Your line is open.
Theresa Chin (Analyst)
Hi there. Thank you for taking my questions, and also I’d like to echo congratulations to Richard and Heather on their new roles. When we look at 2027, with refinery turnaround activity likely to be higher next year—both planned and potentially unplanned, given how highly utilized the system has been—year, is that fully reflected in the volume assumptions underpinning your 2027 EBITDA outlook? How do you think about implications to volumes in light of this?
Richard Pryor (Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer)
Yeah, good question. It’s Richard. You know, hard to say exactly what refinery turnarounds are going to look like. The refinery utilizations have been extremely high this year, and I think as long as crack spreads continue to be wide, refineries are going to continue to want to look to ways to optimize that and produce products. But if you have refineries that are having turnarounds, whether they be planned or unplanned, there’s also been a lot of inventories drawn down.
And so our view is that 2027, you’re going to see production coming online that is at some point, we think, likely going to outpace the egress, and so that is going to drive widening of the differentials and send the barrels to move. And I think there’s going to be opportunities that people are going to want to take to start returning barrels into storage as well. So I’d say our base case is high utilization of our assets next year.
Theresa Chin (Analyst)
That’s helpful. Thank you.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And I am showing no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Bevin for closing remarks.
Bevin Wirzba (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Thank you, Michelle. And thank you all for joining us today and for your continued interest in South Bow. I hope everyone has a great day.
OPERATOR
This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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