Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

TELUS reports before the market opens, meaning Day 0 reflects the first full trading session where the market reacts to results, and Day +1 captures follow-through momentum.

Historically, TELUS has exhibited significant volatility on earnings day, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 4.22% over the past eight quarters. The most dramatic reaction came in Q2 2026 (July 31), when the stock plunged 11.23% following the dividend cut announcement and a massive earnings miss. Other notable moves include a 7.10% gain in Q2 2025 and a 4.52% jump in Q4 2024, both driven by better-than-expected operational metrics.

Day +1 follow-through has been more muted, averaging 0.97%, suggesting that the initial reaction tends to capture the bulk of the price discovery. The 7.69% expected move implied by options for the November expiration is notably higher than the historical Day 0 average of 4.22%, signaling that the market is pricing in elevated uncertainty around this release — likely reflecting concerns over guidance, deleveraging progress, and the sustainability of ARPU trends.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing a 7.69% expected move (approximately $0.72) for TELUS into the November 20 expiration, significantly above the stock's historical average Day 0 earnings move of 4.22%. This elevated implied volatility suggests traders are bracing for a larger-than-usual reaction, consistent with the high stakes around deleveraging execution, cost discipline, and the potential for further guidance revisions. Investors should be prepared for heightened price swings in either direction.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analyst sentiment on TELUS is decidedly cautious, with the stock carrying an average recommendation of 2.69 on a 5-point scale — firmly in Hold territory and leaning toward the bearish end of the spectrum. The breakdown shows 1 Strong Buy, 11 Holds, 1 Moderate Sell, and 3 Strong Sells among the 16 analysts covering the stock. Notably, sentiment has deteriorated over the past month, with the average recommendation slipping from 2.81 to 2.69 as one analyst shifted from Hold to Strong Sell.

The consensus price target of $9.68 implies 2.8% upside from the current price of $9.42, a modest projection that reflects limited near-term conviction. The range of targets is wide: the high estimate of $11.20 suggests some analysts see value if deleveraging succeeds, while the low of $7.00 points to downside risk if operational pressures intensify. Barclays recently lowered its target to $10.00 from $11.00, citing ongoing competitive headwinds and the extended timeline to reach leverage targets.

The deterioration in sentiment is notable. In April 2026, TD Securities' Vince Valentini downgraded TELUS to Hold alongside BCE and Rogers, marking the first time in over 30 years he held no Buy ratings across the Canadian telecom sector. Desjardins followed suit in August, cutting TELUS from Moderate Buy to Hold, while Morgan Stanley and Wall Street Zen both moved to Underweight/Sell ratings. The common thread: concerns over the sustainability of ARPU, the credibility of the deleveraging plan, and the risk that cost cuts alone cannot offset top-line pressure in a commoditized market.

The muted price target and deteriorating ratings reflect a sector-wide reassessment. With the dividend reset now in place and restructuring underway, analysts are waiting for proof that TELUS can stabilize margins, reduce debt, and return to profitable growth — none of which is guaranteed in the current environment.

Part 4: Technical Picture

TELUS is entering earnings with mixed technical signals that reflect both recent momentum and longer-term weakness. The stock is currently trading at $9.42, positioned above its 5-day ($9.09), 10-day ($8.88), 20-day ($8.56), and 50-day ($8.73) moving averages, indicating short-term strength. However, it remains below the 100-day ($9.53) and 200-day ($11.25) moving averages, underscoring the significant downtrend that has unfolded over the past year.

The Barchart Technical Opinion currently registers a 56% Sell signal, down from 80% Sell a week ago and 100% Sell a month ago. This improvement suggests that the stock's recent bounce off multi-year lows has eased some of the extreme bearish pressure, though the overall signal remains negative.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal indicates near-term momentum remains fragile despite the recent rally off lows
• Medium-term (50% Sell): Neutral-to-negative reading suggests consolidation in the intermediate timeframe with no clear directional bias
• Long-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal reflects persistent weakness in the longer-term trend, consistent with the stock trading well below its 200-day moving average

The trend is characterized as Average strength with the Weakest direction, indicating that while volatility has moderated, the underlying momentum remains unconstructive. The stock's position above short-term moving averages but below longer-term benchmarks suggests it is in a recovery attempt within a broader downtrend.

Heading into earnings, the technical setup is cautiously supportive in the very short term but remains structurally weak over longer horizons. The stock's ability to hold above the 50-day moving average at $8.73 will be critical; a break below that level on disappointing results could trigger a retest of recent lows. Conversely, a strong report that addresses deleveraging concerns and stabilizes ARPU could propel the stock toward the 100-day moving average at $9.53, a key resistance level. The 200-day moving average at $11.25 represents a distant target that would require a sustained fundamental turnaround to reclaim. Overall, the technical picture suggests limited downside cushion and a need for a credible earnings beat to shift sentiment.