Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Surrozen typically reports earnings before the market opens, meaning Day 0 reflects the first full trading session where investors react to results, while Day +1 captures follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | -$0.31 (-1.41%) | $1.25 (5.69%) | +$3.98 (+18.39%) | $5.02 (23.20%) |
| 2026-05-06 | +$1.49 (+4.56%) | $3.07 (9.41%) | -$3.38 (-9.90%) | $4.50 (13.18%) |
| 2026-03-23 | +$0.09 (+0.36%) | $1.56 (6.20%) | -$0.24 (-0.95%) | $1.72 (6.81%) |
| 2025-11-07 | -$0.30 (-2.40%) | $0.99 (7.92%) | -$0.40 (-3.28%) | $0.62 (5.09%) |
| 2025-08-08 | +$0.53 (+5.87%) | $0.84 (9.30%) | +$0.42 (+4.45%) | $1.36 (14.17%) |
| 2025-05-09 | -$0.34 (-3.90%) | $1.33 (15.31%) | -$0.35 (-4.19%) | $1.13 (13.53%) |
| 2025-03-31 | +$0.65 (+5.90%) | $0.86 (7.82%) | -$0.54 (-4.63%) | $1.81 (15.54%) |
| 2024-11-06 | -$0.56 (-5.12%) | $1.80 (16.45%) | -$0.19 (-1.83%) | $0.98 (9.49%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 3.69% | 9.76% | 5.95% | 12.63% |
Surrozen has exhibited significant volatility around earnings, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 3.69% and Day +1 move of 5.95%.
The most recent earnings release (August 6, 2026) saw the stock decline 1.41% on Day 0 despite beating estimates, but then surge 18.39% on Day +1 as investors digested the strong revenue beat and improved loss profile. The prior quarter (May 6, 2026) showed a 4.56% gain on Day 0 followed by a 9.90% decline on Day +1, reflecting initial optimism that faded.
The Day 0 trading range has averaged 9.76%, while Day +1 ranges have averaged 12.63%, indicating that the stock often sees its largest moves in the session following the initial reaction. Direction has been mixed, with no clear pattern of beats or misses translating to consistent price action.
Investors should expect meaningful volatility, with historical data suggesting a potential swing of 10-13% in either direction over the two-day window following the release.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Surrozen holds a Strong Buy consensus from Wall Street analysts, with 6 Strong Buy ratings, 0 Moderate Buys, 1 Hold, and 0 Sells among the seven firms covering the stock. The average price target of $45.00 implies 55% upside from the current price of $28.95, with a high estimate of $54.00 and a low of $40.00.
Analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with the rating holding steady at 4.71 on the 5-point scale. However, the bullish stance has strengthened significantly over a longer timeframe—the Barchart Technical Opinion signal improved from 8% Buy a month ago to 56% Buy currently, reflecting growing momentum as the company achieved key clinical milestones.
The recent wave of positive analyst actions includes William Blair's August initiation with an Outperform rating and $51 target, and H.C. Wainwright's September upgrade to $54 from $44, citing external validation of the Wnt pathway and progress toward IND submission. Cantor Fitzgerald also initiated with an Overweight rating and $40 target. The lone dissenting voice is Weiss Ratings, which maintains a Sell rating, though this appears to be an outlier.
The consensus view suggests analysts see substantial value in Surrozen's ophthalmology pipeline and believe the recent FDA clearance for SZN-8141 de-risks the clinical path forward, despite the company's ongoing losses and cash burn.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion signal for Surrozen currently stands at 56% Buy, unchanged from last week but up sharply from 8% Buy a month ago. This improvement reflects the stock's recent momentum as it has climbed above key moving averages.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal indicates near-term momentum is decisively positive, with the stock in a clear uptrend
- Medium-term (Hold): Neutral reading suggests consolidation in the intermediate timeframe as the stock digests recent gains
- Long-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal reflects a constructive longer-term trend, though not as emphatic as the short-term picture
Trend Characteristics: The trend is characterized by Soft strength with a Weakening direction, suggesting that while the stock remains in an uptrend, momentum may be losing steam heading into the earnings release.
The stock is trading above its 20-day ($27.06), 50-day ($24.80), 100-day ($23.95), and 200-day ($25.31) moving averages, confirming the intermediate and longer-term uptrend. However, it sits below both the 5-day ($29.76) and 10-day ($29.09) moving averages, indicating some recent pullback from near-term highs.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $29.76 | 50-Day MA | $24.80 |
| 10-Day MA | $29.09 | 100-Day MA | $23.95 |
| 20-Day MA | $27.06 | 200-Day MA | $25.31 |
The stock has established support at the 20-day moving average around $27, with the rising 50-day average at $24.80 providing a secondary support level. Resistance appears near the recent highs around $30, where the 5-day and 10-day averages now sit.
The technical setup is moderately supportive heading into earnings, with the stock in a confirmed uptrend above all major long-term moving averages. However, the recent pullback below short-term averages and the "Weakening" trend direction suggest some caution is warranted. A strong earnings beat could propel the stock back above $30 resistance, while a disappointment could test support at the 20-day moving average. The historical volatility pattern suggests investors should be prepared for a significant move in either direction.