Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
STWD reports before the market open, so Day 0 reflects the first full trading session where investors react to results, and Day +1 captures follow-through.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | -$0.28 (-1.73%) | $0.71 (4.38%) | +$0.52 (+3.26%) | $0.57 (3.58%) |
| 2026-05-08 | -$0.30 (-1.66%) | $0.51 (2.83%) | -$0.52 (-2.93%) | $0.58 (3.27%) |
| 2026-02-25 | +$0.04 (+0.23%) | $0.36 (2.04%) | +$0.38 (+2.14%) | $0.45 (2.54%) |
| 2025-11-10 | -$0.53 (-2.88%) | $0.59 (3.20%) | +$0.18 (+1.01%) | $0.30 (1.68%) |
| 2025-08-07 | +$0.38 (+1.96%) | $0.25 (1.29%) | +$0.10 (+0.51%) | $0.21 (1.04%) |
| 2025-05-09 | +$0.13 (+0.68%) | $0.48 (2.52%) | +$0.50 (+2.61%) | $0.37 (1.93%) |
| 2025-02-27 | +$0.18 (+0.90%) | $0.49 (2.45%) | +$0.36 (+1.79%) | $0.41 (2.06%) |
| 2024-11-06 | -$0.27 (-1.37%) | $0.97 (4.93%) | +$0.05 (+0.26%) | $0.23 (1.21%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 1.43% | 2.96% | 1.81% | 2.16% |
Over the past eight quarters, STWD has moved an average of 1.43% on earnings day (Day 0) and 1.81% the following session (Day +1), with intraday ranges averaging 2.96% and 2.16%, respectively. The direction has been mixed: the most recent quarter (August 2026) saw a modest 1.73% decline on Day 0 followed by a 3.26% gain on Day +1, while the prior quarter (May 2026) posted a 1.66% drop on Day 0 and a 2.93% decline on Day +1.
The largest Day 0 move came in November 2025, when the stock fell 2.88%, and the biggest Day +1 swing was a 3.26% gain in August 2026. The data suggests that STWD's post-earnings price action tends to be relatively contained compared to more volatile names, but the direction is unpredictable—investors should expect moves in the 1.5% to 3% range in either direction, with follow-through often more pronounced than the initial reaction.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 11/20/26 (DTE 15) |
| Expected Move | $0.64 (4.95%) |
| Expected Range | $12.24 to $13.52 |
| Implied Volatility | 34.24% |
The options market is pricing a 4.95% expected move (roughly $0.64) by the November 20 expiration, implying a range of $12.24 to $13.52. This is notably larger than the stock's average historical Day 0 move of 1.43% and even exceeds the average Day +1 move of 1.81%, suggesting options traders are anticipating more volatility than recent earnings have delivered. The elevated implied move may reflect uncertainty around asset resolution progress, dividend sustainability, and the trajectory of new loan originations.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts currently rate STWD a Buy, with 6 Strong Buy ratings, 2 Moderate Buy ratings, and 2 Hold ratings. There are no Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The average price target is $18.22, implying 41% upside from the current price, with a high estimate of $24.00 and a low of $14.00.
Sentiment has improved over the past month, with the Strong Buy count rising from 5 to 6 and the Hold count declining from 3 to 2. The average recommendation score of 4.40 (on a 1-5 scale) is up from 4.20 a month ago, reflecting growing confidence among analysts that the company's diversified platform, balance sheet strength, and return to meaningful origination activity can support a premium valuation relative to peers.
The wide range of price targets—from $14 to $24—underscores the debate over STWD's outlook. Bulls point to the company's scale, diversified business model, and aggressive capital deployment as reasons to expect a recovery in earnings and a return to dividend coverage. Bears remain cautious about the pace of asset resolutions, the sustainability of the dividend given the current payout ratio, and the risk that commercial real estate headwinds persist longer than expected. The consensus target of $18.22 suggests analysts believe the market is undervaluing the platform's long-term earnings power, but the path to realizing that upside depends on execution in the coming quarters.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion currently signals 88% Sell, down slightly from 100% Sell a week ago and 100% Sell a month ago, indicating persistent bearish technical pressure though with a modest recent improvement.
- Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal suggests near-term momentum remains negative but less extreme than longer timeframes
- Medium-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal indicates consolidation and weakness in the intermediate timeframe
- Long-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal reflects sustained weakness in the longer-term trend
Maximum strength, Average direction characterizes the trend environment, suggesting the bearish signal is firmly established but not accelerating, which implies a grinding downtrend rather than a sharp collapse heading into earnings.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $12.63 | 50-Day MA | $13.84 |
| 10-Day MA | $12.54 | 100-Day MA | $15.17 |
| 20-Day MA | $12.47 | 200-Day MA | $16.43 |
The stock is trading above its 5-day ($12.63), 10-day ($12.54), and 20-day ($12.47) moving averages, indicating a short-term bounce, but remains below its 50-day ($13.84), 100-day ($15.17), and 200-day ($16.43) moving averages, confirming the longer-term downtrend. The technical setup is cautionary: while the stock has stabilized in the very near term, it remains well below key intermediate and long-term support levels. Investors should be prepared for heightened volatility around earnings, with the options market pricing a larger move than recent history suggests and the technical backdrop offering little cushion if results or guidance disappoint.