The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that the peak domestic retail season for electric vehicles is not strong, exports and overseas demand are growing, and the increase in bicycle charging capacity supports power demand. Shipments of energy storage batteries have maintained a relatively rapid growth, with large storage and industrial and commercial storage contributing the main increase. Demand delivery during the peak season is weak, material price increases are driving profit differentiation repair, and attention is being paid to battery leaders with stable patterns and material companies with the flexibility to recover profits.
As of November 3, 2026, some lithium battery faucets correspond to about 10-12 times PE in 2027. We recommend Ningde Era (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ), China Airlines, Sunwoda, and follow Penghui Energy; in the material sector, we recommend Putailai, Dingsheng New Materials, Enjie Co., Ltd., Foshan Plastic Technology, Kodali, Shangtai Technology, Hunan Yuneng, Tianci Materials, Fulin Precision, Huayou Cobalt, Xingyuan, etc. De Co., Ltd., Jiayuan Technology, Polyfluoride, Wanrun Xinneng, Longyuan Technology, Haike Xinyuan, Shida Shenghua, etc.; Ganfeng Lithium, Guocheng Mining, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Dazhong Mining, China Mining Resources, Yongxing Materials, Tianqi Lithium, Yahua Group, Zangge Mining, etc. are recommended in the lithium carbonate sector.
The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:
Electric vehicles: The peak domestic retail season is not strong, exports and overseas demand are growing, and the increase in bicycle charging capacity supports power demand. From January to September 2026, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 12.472 million units, up 11.1% year on year, of which 4.04 million units were exported, up 132% year on year; total retail sales of domestic new energy passenger vehicles were 7.762 million units, down 12.2% year on year. During the same period, the average domestic bicycle charge was 66.3 kWh, up 28% year on year; the average electric charge of a passenger car was 54.7 kWh, up 21% year on year, and 0.7% month-on-month in September. Domestic NEV sales (including exports) are expected to be 18.41 million units in 2026, up 12% year on year, of which 5.89 million units will be exported, up 125% year on year. Nine mainstream European countries have accumulated sales of 2.887 million units from January to September, up 39% year on year. European sales volume is expected to be 5.2 million units, up 34% year on year; US sales are expected to be 1.19 million units, down 27% year on year; other countries are expected to sell 3.02 million units for the whole year, up 88% year on year. Global NEV sales are expected to be 22.08 million units in 2026, up 5% year on year; power battery demand is 1,726 GWh, up 21% year on year; in 2027, global sales of new energy vehicles will be 24.88 million units, up 13% year on year, and power battery demand will increase 17% year on year by 2020 Gwh.
Energy storage: Battery shipments have maintained a relatively rapid growth rate, with large storage and commercial storage contributing the main increase. From January to September 2026, global energy storage battery shipments were about 837 Gwh, an increase of 105% over the previous year. Domestic large storage and tenders continued to grow, and demand from Europe and emerging markets provided an increase. Global demand for energy storage batteries is expected to be 1,100 GWh in 2026, up 71% year on year; in 2027 it will reach 1,500 GWh, up 36% year on year, with 491 GWh in China and 1009 GWh overseas. Global demand for power and energy storage batteries is expected to total 2,826 GWh in 2026, an increase of 37% year on year; in 2027 it will reach 3,520 Gwh, an increase of 25% year on year.
Production schedule and price: Demand delivery during peak season is weak, and material price increases are being implemented to restore profit differentiation. From January to September 2026, global power and energy storage battery production was about 2,241 Gwh, an increase of 52% over the previous year. The industry's production schedule for the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to remain flat month-on-month. Production momentum will gradually weaken from November to February 2027, and it is expected to gradually recover after the Spring Festival. On the profit side, battery companies were affected by tax adjustments and impairment losses related to lithium carbonate; the average price of VC rose to 150,000 to 170,000 yuan/ton in the third quarter, and the price of loose orders rose to more than 220,000 yuan/ton in September, and profits in the fourth quarter are expected to be further reflected. Net profit per ton of copper foil recovered to 0.4-50,000 yuan in the third quarter, and is expected to rise to 0.5-70,000 yuan in the fourth quarter; the net profit of a single flat in the third quarter was restored to about 0.20 yuan/square meter, and Shangtai Technology's net profit per ton in the third quarter was about 0.26 million yuan. In 2027, as the graphitization self-supply rate increases, unit profit is expected to improve further.
Risk warning: Price competition exceeds market expectations, fluctuating raw material prices, terminal demand and industry production schedules fall short of expectations.