According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the removal of the US parcel tariff exemption is a foregone conclusion. The EU will abolish the tariff exemption for small packages below 150 euros from July 2026, and made it clear that non-EU platforms assume compliance responsibilities as importers. The industry is accelerating the shift from direct parcel mail to semi-custody/POP and overseas warehouse fulfillment. The threshold is rising, and concentration is expected to increase for leading players, but in the short term, it is facing the pain of compliance and rectification. On the demand side, according to Euromonitor, the global retail e-commerce scale in 2025 was about 4.66 trillion US dollars/+10.4%. Major export destinations such as the US and Europe maintained medium to high single-digit growth rates. Emerging regions are growing faster, and the overall growth rate is stronger than social zero. Looking ahead to 2027, as the compliance model becomes more stable, platform players are expected to recover from a low base in 2026. It is recommended to focus on the undervalued allocation window period created by the high-pressure policy environment.

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