The Zhitong Finance App learned that from January to October 2026, Kerui Real Estate Research published an article stating that from January to October 2026, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies in the equity list was 1794.16 billion yuan, down 0.3 percentage points from January to September; total monthly sales in October were 184.14 billion yuan, down 8.3% year on year, basically flat from month to month. The traditional peak sales season did not show significant volume, and the total volume was still low in recent years. Looking at the ownership structure, the sales amount of central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises in the TOP100 sample was 50.2% and 23.8% respectively. The total sales amount of the two was about 74%; private housing enterprises accounted for 19.6% of the sales amount. In terms of leading factions, there are no private housing enterprises in the top 10. There are only 3 private housing enterprises in the top 20: Binjiang Group (002244.SZ), Country Garden (02007), and Bontai Group.
According to the 78 comparable companies that have been on the list for two years, the share of sales amount of central enterprises rose from 47.9% to 53.8%, and the sales amount decreased by only 1.9% year on year; the share of private housing enterprises in sales fell from 21.7% to 18.6%, and the sales amount decreased by 24.9% year on year. In terms of growth, out of 78 comparable companies, only 21 had positive year-on-year growth, and the number of positive growth accounted for 26.9%. By enterprise nature, central enterprises account for 42.9%, which is the highest among the four categories of players, and there is no sample of deep decline; local state-owned enterprises are growing by 6, accounting for 30.0%, and internal performance is divided; private housing enterprises account for only 18.2%, the lowest among the three main categories of central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, and private enterprises. The growth structure was also concentrated on state-owned enterprises: among the top 10 companies with sales growth, central state-owned enterprises accounted for 7 seats, including 4 central enterprises and 3 local state-owned enterprises; ten enterprises increased by a total of 42.95 billion yuan, and state-owned enterprises contributed 81.0%, of which 3 China Construction Engineering Bureau accounted for 48.0% of the ten increases. The three private housing enterprises, Hongfa Group, Maoyuan Holdings, and Wanhua Investment, all had a base of less than 5 billion yuan for the same period in 2025. The higher increase in the current period was affected by base factors, and the sustainability of growth still needs to be further observed in light of new supply and project sales.
Comprehensive judgment: The industry continues the stock pattern of “central enterprises dominated, local state-owned enterprises under pressure, and private housing enterprises divided”. Growth is concentrated in a few players, and contraction is widespread.
01 Overall performance: The decline subsided and leveled off in a single month
From January to October 2026, the total sales of the top 100 housing enterprises in the equity list was 1794.16 billion yuan, down 11.1% from the previous year. Looking at the pace, the cumulative year-on-year decline in the first nine months was 11.4%. The cumulative decline from January to October narrowed to 11.1%, and the rate of contraction slowed down. Total monthly sales in October were 184.14 billion yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, and remained at the level of 184 billion yuan for two consecutive months. Total sales in October of the same period last year were 2007.0 billion yuan, which mainly had an amplifying effect on this month's year-on-year reading; judging from the absolute scale and month-on-month trend, total sales in October this year were 184.14 billion yuan, down 0.1% month-on-month, and remained at the level of 184 billion yuan for two consecutive months, and the actual market performance was still lackluster.
In terms of scale distribution, from January to October, there were 33 enterprises with equity sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, 46 enterprises with equity sales of 5 billion to 10 billion yuan, and 21 enterprises with 4 billion to 5 billion yuan. The entry threshold for the TOP100 list was 4.03 billion yuan. There are a large number of companies in the middle and lower echelons, but the sales scale of most companies in the list is still shrinking. The dense distribution of the scale band is mainly due to a downward shift in the middle threshold, rather than the general stabilization of the industry.
02 Threshold and echelon: The top three have risen, and the top ten thresholds have clearly moved downward
Table 1. Thresholds and year-on-year ratio of equity lists from January to October 2026 (unit: 100 million yuan)
Data source: compiled by Kerry Research Center
Figure 1. Comparison of thresholds and year-on-year comparison between the entitlement lists for January-October 2025 and January-October 2026
Data source: compiled by Kerry Research Center
The direction of change in the five-tier threshold is inconsistent. The TOP3 threshold was 125.15 billion yuan, up 8.6% year on year, mainly because the sales volume of the top three companies was at a high level, namely Zhonghai Real Estate's 182.93 billion yuan, Poly Development 156.80 billion yuan, and China Resources Land 125.15 billion yuan; the TOP20 threshold increased slightly by 1.0% year on year. In contrast, the TOP10 threshold was lowered from RMB 50.41 billion to RMB 37.25 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 26.1%, the biggest drop among the five levels: Vanke Real Estate, ranked 10th in sales this year, amounted to 37.25 billion yuan. What needs to be clarified is that the TOP10 threshold is also affected by the replacement of the 10th largest company, and it is not appropriate to simply attribute sales changes to a single enterprise. The TOP50 threshold decreased by 13.1% year on year; the TOP100 threshold was 4.03 billion yuan, down 0.2% year on year, and the bottom line for entry was basically stable.
The threshold structure reflects not an overall decline, but rather hierarchical differentiation: leading companies have moved the threshold higher with operational resilience; the TOP10 and TOP50 thresholds have dropped significantly, but the TOP20 threshold has risen slightly, and there is clear differentiation within the lower back echelon; the bottom sector threshold is basically stable, while the 51-100 group accounts for only 12.1% of companies with a year-on-year positive growth rate, and it remains to be seen whether the industry clears up. The above stratification at the threshold level is mutually confirmed by the pattern of differentiation at the enterprise level.
03 Ownership pattern: Central and state-owned enterprises lead, private housing enterprises concentrated in the middle and back
(1) Share of the amount: Central enterprises account for more than half, private housing enterprises less than 20%
Based on the TOP100 full sample calculation, 23 central enterprises had a total sales amount of 90,78 billion yuan, accounting for 50.2%; 31 local state-owned enterprises accounted for 23.8%; 4 mixed ownership enterprises accounted for 6.4%; and 42 private housing enterprises accounted for 19.6%. Central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises together account for about 74%.
Table 2 Amount structure of TOP100 points from January to October 2026
Data source: compiled by Kerry Research Center
Note: The item amount is rounded up and there is a difference of less than $100 million from the total
The New Year's Eve comparison is more likely to reflect changes in share. The following calculation is based on the comparable caliber of 78 companies. The share of sales amount of central enterprises rose from 47.9% in the same period in 2025 to 53.8%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points, and the sales amount fell only 1.9% year on year, the closest of the four categories of players; the share of sales of local state-owned enterprises fell slightly from 20.7% to 20.6%, and the sales amount fell 12.9% year on year. The decline was slightly higher than the overall level of 78 comparable samples (about 12.7%), but lower than that of private housing enterprises and mixed ownership enterprises, the share was basically flat; the share of mixed ownership enterprises fell from 9.7% to 7.0%; amount The share fell from 21.7% to 18.6%, down 3.1 percentage points, the biggest drop among the four categories. Sales volume fell 24.9% year-on-year, and the biggest decline among the three main categories of state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, and the private sector.
Figure 2. Percentage of 78 comparable housing enterprises in terms of monetary value compared to the same period (January-October)
Data source: Compiled by the Kerry Research Center, calculated based on 78 comparable companies that have been on the list for two years
(2) Leading faction: There are no private enterprises in the top 10, only 3 in the top 20
The ownership structure of the leading faction continues the trend of concentration. Among the top 10, there are 5 central enterprises, namely Zhonghai Real Estate, Poly Development, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and China Jinmao; 3 local state-owned enterprises, namely C&D Real Estate, Greenland Holdings, and Yuexiu Real Estate; 2 mixed ownership enterprises, namely Greentown China and Vanke Real Estate; and no private housing enterprises. There are only 3 of the top 20 Chinese private housing enterprises: Binjiang Group ranked 13th with 30.4 billion yuan, Country Garden ranked 17th with 23.30 billion yuan, Bangtai Group ranked 19th with 21.67 billion yuan, and the remaining 17 were central state-owned enterprises and mixed ownership enterprises. It should be pointed out that the above 3 private housing enterprises have different layout strategies, and their performance is divided from year to year; the number of private housing enterprises on the list is still 42, mainly distributed in the middle and back of the list.
04 Business differentiation: growth is concentrated, contraction is widespread
(1) Overall: Positive growth companies account for less than 30%; the lower the rank in the echelon, the weaker the year-on-year performance
Table 3 Year-on-year performance of equity rankings from January to October 2026
Data source: Compiled by the Kerry Research Center, calculated based on 78 comparable companies that have been on the list for two years
Of the 78 comparable companies, only 21 had positive year-on-year growth, and the proportion of positive growth was 26.9%. Looking at the hierarchy, the 11-20 group had the highest proportion of positive growth companies, reaching 44.4%; affected by the small sample size and large differences between companies, this ratio was higher than 40.0% of the 1-10 echelon, and there was significant segmentation within the echelon: it included not only fast-growing companies such as China Construction Yipin (up 37.0% year on year) and China Construction Dongfu (up 45.1% year over year), but also many companies that have declined deeply. Of the 33 comparable companies in the 51-100 hierarchy, only 4 are growing, and the number of positive growth accounts for 12.1%. The median year-on-year increase for each echelon dropped from -6.4% for 1-10 to -20.5% for 51-100. The lower the rank of the echelon, the weaker the overall year-on-year performance. The entry threshold remains stable at a low level, mainly affected by new entrants taking positions. It is impossible to judge the general stabilization of the industry based on this.
(2) Classification: Central enterprises are the most resilient, while private housing enterprises account for the lowest share of positive growth households
In addition to the above share of amounts, there is a greater difference between the “growth surface and contraction surface” within each entity (proportion of positive growth households = number of households with positive growth in this nature ÷ number of comparable households):
Table 4 Distribution of year-on-year changes in equity sales of housing enterprises of different types
Data source: Compiled by the Kerry Research Center, calculated based on 78 comparable companies that have been on the list for two years
Central enterprises are the most resilient: 9 out of 21 are growing, accounting for 42.9%, the highest of the four categories, and none fell within the deep decline range of ≤ -50%. Overall, there is a pattern of “moderate decline, where restoration and high growth coexist”.
Local state-owned enterprises were dominated by a moderate decline: the 50.0% decline in corporate sales was concentrated in the -30% to 0 range, with 6 positive growth companies accounting for 30.0%; however, there were distributions at both ends of the range. However, there were distributions at both ends of the range. Deep-falling enterprises with a year-on-year decline of more than 50% and high-growth companies with a year-on-year increase of more than 30% each accounted for 15.0%. Within the echelon, there are strong regional enterprises such as Beijing Construction Engineering (up 65.1% year on year) and Nanshan Holdings (up 45.1% year over year), as well as platform companies that have shrunk deeply. The performance differentiation between central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises is evident.
The proportion of positive growing households in private housing enterprises was the lowest among the three main categories: the largest number of comparable samples, reaching 33, covering all five ranges; there was only 6 positive growth, accounting for 18.2% of the number of positive growth households. Among private housing enterprises, there are both low-base restoration samples such as Hongfa Group (83.4% year-on-year increase), and a significant proportion of enterprises are in a state of deep adjustment. Overall, they have structural characteristics of long-tail contraction and partial restoration. All 4 mixed ownership companies had negative growth; due to the small sample size, this group of data is for comparative reference only.
(3) Growth list: State-owned assets account for 7 seats in the top 10 increases, 80% of the increase comes from state-owned assets
Implementing the growth situation to the list of companies, it can be seen that the nature of the high-growth sample is quite different:
Table 5 Top 10 equity sales growth rates for typical housing enterprises from January to October 2026
Data source: Compiled by the Kerry Research Center. The amounts in the table are rounded off, and the year-on-year increase is calculated based on the original accurate amount
State-owned enterprises account for 7 seats: 4 central enterprises, namely CCCC Real Estate (up 48.6% year on year), China Construction Dongfu (up 45.1% year on year), China Construction Yipin (up 37.0% year on year), and China Construction Jiuhe (up 36.0% year on year). Of these, 3 are China Construction Engineering (up 65.1% year on year), and Jinyu Group (up 33.7% year on year). Private housing enterprises occupied 3 seats: Hongfa Group grew 83.4% year on year, ranking first; Maoyuan Holdings grew 50.2% year on year, and Wanhua Investment increased 46.2% year on year. The equity sales of the 3 private housing enterprises mentioned above were all less than 5 billion yuan in the same period. The higher increase in the current period was affected by base factors; Beijing Construction Engineering and Nanshan Holdings, of the 7 state-owned companies, also had a base of less than 5 billion yuan for the same period in 2025, which also included low base restoration factors.
Measured by increments rather than growth, the weight of state-owned enterprises increased further: ten enterprises increased by a total of 42.95 billion yuan, of which central enterprises increased by 27.43 billion yuan, accounting for 63.9%; local state-owned enterprises amounted to 7.34 billion yuan, accounting for 17.1%; state-owned enterprises accounted for 81.0%; and the three private enterprises increased by a total of 8.17 billion yuan, accounting for 19.0%. Among them, China Construction Dongfu, China Construction Yipin, and CCCC Real Estate had a base of 21.21 billion yuan, 20.39 billion yuan, and 14.03 billion yuan respectively for the same period in 2025, all exceeding 10 billion yuan. The three companies contributed 55.7% of the ten increases in total; the three enterprises of the China Construction Engineering Bureau increased by a total of 20.61 billion yuan, accounting for 48.0% of the ten increases. It can be seen that the “state-owned assets occupy seven seats” pattern is largely driven by the collective growth of China Construction Engineering bureau enterprises.
It should be pointed out that the above growth list is less consistent with the scale list: the median equity sales of the ten companies from January to October 2026 was 9.07 billion yuan, with units distributed between 12th and 72nd places; only 3 companies, China Construction Dongfu (30.77 billion yuan), China Construction Yipin (27.94 billion yuan), and CCCC Real Estate (20.86 billion yuan), exceeded 20 billion yuan, all below the TOP10 threshold (37.25 billion yuan). The total increase of the ten enterprises was 42.95 billion yuan, which is only 19.1% of the TOP100 contraction during the same period (224.68 billion yuan). It is a structural increase of a few enterprises, and it does not change the overall judgment that the total volume is low.
(4) Head and waist: The head position changes one after the other, and the waist position is glued
Table 6 Top 10 equity rankings from January to October 2026
Data source: compiled by Kerry Research Center
The head pattern shows two main lines. First, the leader changed hands: Zhonghai Real Estate ranked first with 182.93 billion yuan, Poly Development ranked second with 156.80 billion yuan; China Resources Land ranked third with 125.15 billion yuan, and the top three were all state-owned enterprises. The difference between first place and second place was 26.13 billion yuan, the difference between second place and third place was 31.65 billion yuan, and the difference between third place and fourth place, China Merchants Shekou (96.99 billion yuan) was 28.16 billion yuan. The leading edge of the top three was obvious, and the scale advantage of the top three during the year was quite obvious.
Second, the waist is in a tight position. The 10-14 ranking range is the most concentrated in this period: the difference between China Construction Dongfu (30.77 billion yuan) and Binjiang Group (30.4 billion yuan) is only 370 million yuan, followed by China Construction Yipin (27.94 billion yuan). Vanke Real Estate ranked 10th with 37.25 billion yuan; according to the historical list, this is the lowest ranking in terms of equity. China Railway Construction ranked 11th with sales volume of 35.41 billion yuan, a difference of only 1.84 billion yuan from Vanke Real Estate. The final ownership of 10th place will be one of the main variables in the list for the last two months of the year. The sales volume of Greenland Holdings was 54.53 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% over the previous year. It is one of the few companies in the top 10 that achieved positive growth, ranking 8th in the current period. In the middle segment, China Construction Engineering Bureau's four companies had a total sales amount of 88.45 billion yuan, accounting for 4.9% of the TOP100, an increase of 26.4% over the previous year, and all of them entered the top 30; among them, China Construction Dongfu ranked 12th, China Construction Yipin ranked 14th, China Construction Smart Land ranked 26th, and China Construction Jiu ranked 29th. Of the 4 companies, 3 entered the aforementioned TOP10, and the other 1 was China Construction Smart Land.
05 Conclusions
The core characteristics of the equity list from January to October 2026 are low total volume, concentrated growth, and widespread contraction: total TOP100 sales fell 11.1% year on year, fell 8.3% year on year in October, and remained basically the same month on month; out of 78 comparable companies, only 21 had positive year-on-year growth, and TOP100 had a total contraction of 224.68 billion yuan.
The three structural clues confirm each other. First, judging from the comparable sample in this issue, the overall sales performance of central enterprises is superior to that of enterprises of other types of ownership. The land reserves, urban layout, and supply rhythm of enterprises also affect sales performance: the sales amount of central enterprises fell only 1.9% year on year, the positive growth rate was 42.9%, and there was no deep decline sample, which is the most stable category; the total volume of local state-owned enterprises is under pressure, but strong regional enterprises have emerged from within; the sales volume of private housing enterprises fell 24.9% year on year, and the positive growth rate was only 18.2%, leaving the middle of the list as a whole. Second, the growth was highly concentrated on state-owned enterprises: the top 10 Chinese enterprises accounted for 7 seats, and the increase of more than 80% of the 10 enterprises came from state-owned capital, of which 3 companies from the China Construction Engineering Administration contributed 48.0%; the high growth samples of private housing enterprises all recovered from a low base, and the scale of the increase was limited. Third, head concentration and lower back adhesion coexist: the leading edge of the top three is obvious, and the pattern is difficult to change in the short term; the tenth-14th ranking (such as the competition between Vanke Real Estate and China Railway Construction for 10th place) is a variable to focus on in the last two months of the year.