The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report stating that it maintains the industry's “superior to the market” rating. Judging from marginal changes in the industry, the securities industry is undergoing a double iteration of performance and business models. In the short term, it benefits from the beta market due to increased market trading activity, and the alpha logic brought about by endogenous transformation continues to strengthen in the medium to long term. The bank focuses on recommending leading brokerage firms with strong capital strength, balanced business layout, and leading AI and cross-border business.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
Self-operating performance in the third quarter dragged down the growth trend
In the first three quarters of 2026, 43 listed brokerage firms achieved total revenue of 499.231 billion yuan, up 18.64% year on year, and net profit to mother of 209.473 billion yuan, up 23.74% year on year. The weighted average ROE was 6.15%, up 0.60 percentage points year on year. However, the cumulative growth rate has declined significantly from the first half of the year (revenue +45.9%, net profit +49.1%). Single-quarter revenue for the third quarter was 134.52 billion yuan, -21% year-on-month, and -37% month-on-month; net profit to mother was 54.103 billion yuan, -17% year-on-year, and -43% month-on-month. Only 11 companies achieved a positive year-on-year increase in net profit to mother. The problem is mainly due to proprietary investment: the investment business revenue for the first three quarters was 203.59 billion yuan, up only 8.66% year on year, accounting for 40.8% of operating income, accounting for a year-on-year decrease of 3.7 percentage points. The growth rate ranked last among the five major business lines (brokerage +27.74%, investment banking +26.11%, asset management +20.31%, interest +37.58%), and self-operating income of 34.857 billion yuan in a single quarter. The slowdown in overall growth occurred at the same time as structural differentiation, which meant that the relative performance of self-employment directly determined changes in rankings.
The differentiation of proprietary businesses is essentially the difference between the three types of investment models
The first is directional trading positions (mainly transactional financial assets, or TPL): Against the backdrop of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 falling 12.49% and the GEM index falling 27.80% in the Q3 single quarter, institutions with large equity exposure and strong direction mainly suffered fair value retractions. Thirty-five companies (over 80%) saw a year-on-year decline in self-operating income in a single quarter, and 9 companies had negative values. Second, OCI accounts (fluctuations include other comprehensive income): At the end of the third quarter, the total OCI equity of 43 brokerage firms was 832.262 billion yuan, up 18% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 10.7% of financial investment assets. Among them, CITIC (123.9 billion yuan, +21% month-on-month), Huatai (32.1 billion yuan, +63% month-on-month), and Guangfa (44.7 billion yuan, +46.4% from the beginning of the year) were all increasing rapidly; Cathay Pacific Haitong's OCI equity stabilized at 84.4 billion yuan, and transactional financial assets declined 2% month-on-month. The main configuration structure makes it self-operated Revenue was still recorded at 24.771 billion yuan, an increase of 21.61% year over year. The third is direct equity administration and follow-up investment: The benefits of this type of business depend on the pace of exit from the primary market, and the correlation with the secondary market beta is weak. Hard technology projects such as Changxin Technology, Yushu Technology, and Suiyuan Technology were listed centrally in the third quarter, adding that brokerage firms also assumed direct investment and sponsorship roles. Huaan Securities had self-operating income of 6.03 billion yuan (+203%) in the first three quarters and 3910 billion yuan (+336%) in a single quarter; China Merchants Securities was 20.959 billion yuan (+186%), and self-operating income of 8.044 billion yuan (+151%) in a single quarter rose to the top of the list. China Finance Corporation's net profit and loss of 15.149 billion yuan (+154 billion yuan) was the main source of realization. 35%) is also on the list.
Differences in self-employment models will magnify fluctuations in operating performance
The share of CR5 (top five brokerage firms) of net profit due to mother rose to 50% in the first three quarters, an increase of 4 percentage points over the end of 2025; Huaan (+169.56%), CICC (+101.71%), China Merchants (+94.81%), and Guangfa (+46.58%) ranked ahead. Investment income dominates brokers' performance in two ways. First, most of the high performance growth has “return fulfillment” attributes (such as fair value change profit and loss, equity exit income, etc.), and its sustainability is weaker than fee income, and should not be viewed in the same way as brokerage, asset management, etc.; on the other hand, OCI floating profit is not included in current profit, which may indicate that some proprietary investment income is undervalued, and institutions with large directional exposure to equity are more flexible in the fourth quarter. Therefore, measuring self-employment should look more at the degree of compatibility between “allocation structure - performance fluctuation - capital occupation” rather than simply looking at the rate of revenue growth. This is also the microscopic basis for the industry to shift from scale drive to asset capacity pricing.
Risk warning: risk of large fluctuations in the secondary market; risk of comprehensive deepening of basic system reforms in the capital market falling short of expectations; risk of tightening financial supervision; risk of innovative business falling short of expectations, etc.