The Zhitong Finance App learned that lithium battery concept stocks fell again. As of press release, Ningde Times (03750) fell 5.17% to HK$374.2; Tianqi Lithium (09696) fell 3.97% to HK$24.18; Ganfeng Lithium (01772) fell 3.76% to HK$25.1; Longpan Technology (02465) fell 3.64% to HK$6.885; China Airlines (03931) fell 2.94% to HK$14.22.
J.P. Morgan once again lowered the profit forecast for Chinese battery stocks covered by J.P. Morgan Chase, mainly due to lower unit profit assumptions, rather than weakening shipments; recent communication with automakers and energy storage system integrators shows that tax transfers are more difficult than the bank's previous assumptions. Customers are unwilling to simply absorb battery-related tax burdens through price increases, but instead seek sharing, supplier cost reduction, and supply chain optimization. Until now, there are no OEM guidelines to increase vehicle prices to offset battery consumption tax.
The bank pointed out that industry differentiation intensified, and in the Ningde era, unit profits were higher, net cash balance sheets and stronger cash creativity provided greater buffers, while second-tier manufacturers had thinner profit margins, weaker free cash flow, and higher leverage than the 2023-2024 downward cycle. The bank predicts that Ningde Era's net profit for 2026/27 will be 84.8 billion yuan and 89.1 billion yuan respectively, which means only a 5% year-on-year increase in 2027, yet it is the only battery factory in the coverage area that expects positive profit growth next year.