On November 6, Yan Meizhi, head of Asian financial institution industry research at UBS, released the China Banking Industry Report, stating that she continues to be optimistic about the Chinese banking industry. Following research on real estate developer loans, mortgages and personal operating loans, local government financing platform debt, and broader corporate credit, this is UBS's final report on the risk analysis of non-performing loans in the Chinese banking sector. According to the report, UBS believes that the unsecured consumer credit cycle is not a systemic risk; it is more a manageable provision burden within a few years. With scale growth close to zero, UBS is stress-testing the cumulative additional credit cost of 170 basis points up to 2030, which is within the current credit cost forecast.
Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago
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On November 6, Yan Meizhi, head of Asian financial institution industry research at UBS, released the China Banking Industry Report, stating that she continues to be optimistic about the Chinese banking industry. Following research on real estate developer loans, mortgages and personal operating loans, local government financing platform debt, and broader corporate credit, this is UBS's final report on the risk analysis of non-performing loans in the Chinese banking sector. According to the report, UBS believes that the unsecured consumer credit cycle is not a systemic risk; it is more a manageable provision burden within a few years. With scale growth close to zero, UBS is stress-testing the cumulative additional credit cost of 170 basis points up to 2030, which is within the current credit cost forecast.
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