According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, global wheat trade volume may decline by nearly 9% in 2026-27 due to the tense situation in the Black Sea region disrupting trade flows. Due to supply and logistics constraints, wheat exports from all major exporters are expected to decline. Overall, global grain trade is expected to decrease by 17.4 million tons, or 3.3%, to 507.7 million tons. Total global cereal production is expected to be 2,999 million tons, down about 2% from the previous year. However, there are sufficient stocks of grain in Russia and Ukraine, which is expected to drive inventory levels to rise at the end of the 2027 crop season. Global cereal stocks will increase slightly by 1.8% to 974.7 million tons. Rice production is expected to decline for the first time in four years, falling 2.5% to 552 million tons, mainly due to poor profits on the growing side, compounded by the unfavorable weather brought about by El Niño.

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