It's been a good week for Hamilton Lane Incorporated (NASDAQ:HLNE) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 7.4% to US$90.13. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$204m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 11%, coming in at US$1.87 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Hamilton Lane's seven analysts is for revenues of US$953.8m in 2027. This would reflect a meaningful 9.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 4.7% to US$6.80. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$982.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.63 in 2027. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
Check out our latest analysis for Hamilton Lane
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$123, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Hamilton Lane's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hamilton Lane at US$170 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$95.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 20% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 17% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.9% annually. So although Hamilton Lane is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Hamilton Lane's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$123, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hamilton Lane going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Hamilton Lane that you need to be mindful of.
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