ARKO Petroleum Corp. (NASDAQ:APC) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues hit US$1.8b, beating expectations by a remarkable 23%. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came up short, with EPS of US$0.26 missing forecasts by 20%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, ARKO Petroleum's three analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$6.39b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 15% to US$1.01. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$6.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.01 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for ARKO Petroleum
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$21.75, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic ARKO Petroleum analyst has a price target of US$23.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$21.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that ARKO Petroleum is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ARKO Petroleum's past performance and to peers in the same industry. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2026. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past three years have seen revenue shrink 5.8% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, ARKO Petroleum is still expected to grow slower than the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ARKO Petroleum's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$21.75, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ARKO Petroleum. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ARKO Petroleum going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for ARKO Petroleum (1 is concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.
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