Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
AMG typically reports earnings before the market opens, meaning Day 0 reflects the first full trading session where investors react to results, and Day +1 captures follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | +$5.39 (+1.50%) | $19.86 (5.52%) | +$1.27 (+0.35%) | $10.41 (2.85%) |
| 2026-05-01 | -$3.60 (-1.22%) | $31.85 (10.81%) | +$6.46 (+2.22%) | $13.37 (4.59%) |
| 2026-02-12 | +$20.86 (+6.77%) | $25.07 (8.14%) | +$0.84 (+0.26%) | $11.06 (3.36%) |
| 2025-11-03 | +$18.60 (+7.82%) | $14.05 (5.90%) | -$5.12 (-2.00%) | $5.67 (2.21%) |
| 2025-07-31 | -$0.66 (-0.31%) | $11.62 (5.52%) | -$2.81 (-1.34%) | $7.57 (3.61%) |
| 2025-05-08 | +$5.94 (+3.39%) | $14.98 (8.55%) | -$1.99 (-1.10%) | $5.13 (2.83%) |
| 2025-02-06 | +$0.32 (+0.18%) | $9.48 (5.20%) | -$4.14 (-2.27%) | $4.34 (2.37%) |
| 2024-11-04 | -$16.75 (-8.64%) | $17.42 (8.99%) | +$0.70 (+0.40%) | $5.30 (2.99%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 3.73% | 7.33% | 1.24% | 3.10% |
AMG's post-earnings price behavior shows significant volatility, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 3.73% and an average Day 0 range of 7.33%. The most dramatic reactions have come after strong beats or guidance updates: in November 2025, the stock surged 7.82% on Day 0 following a solid Q3 report, and in February 2026, it jumped 6.77% after a strong Q4 beat. Conversely, November 2024 saw an 8.64% decline despite a beat, reflecting concerns about forward guidance or flow trends at the time.
More recent quarters have shown more muted reactions. The July 2026 report (Q2 results) produced only a 1.50% Day 0 gain despite a 5.61% earnings beat, suggesting the market had already priced in much of the good news. The May 2026 report saw a 1.22% Day 0 decline followed by a 2.22% Day +1 rally, indicating initial caution that gave way to optimism.
Day +1 moves average 1.24%, with a range of 3.10%, suggesting follow-through is typically more subdued than the initial reaction. Investors should expect a Day 0 move in the 3% to 4% range based on historical patterns, with the potential for larger swings if results or guidance deviate significantly from expectations.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 11/20/26 (DTE 14) |
| Expected Move | $9.95 (2.74%) |
| Expected Range | $352.86 to $372.75 |
| Implied Volatility | 47.11% |
The options market is pricing in an expected move of 2.74% (approximately $9.95) by the November 20 expiration, which is below the stock's average historical Day 0 move of 3.73%. This suggests options traders may be underestimating potential volatility, particularly given AMG's recent pattern of significant post-earnings swings and the heightened sensitivity around alternatives momentum and flow trends. The historical data shows Day 0 ranges as wide as 10.81% (May 2026) and 8.14% (February 2026), indicating the potential for moves well beyond the options-implied range if results surprise meaningfully in either direction.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst Consensus and Price Targets
AMG currently holds a Strong Buy consensus among analysts, with 6 Strong Buy ratings, 0 Moderate Buys, 1 Hold, and 1 Strong Sell, for an average recommendation of 4.25 out of 5.0. The mean price target sits at $440.62, implying 21.4% upside from the current price of $362.96. The range of targets is wide: the high estimate of $523.00 suggests some analysts see substantial upside if the alternatives strategy continues to deliver, while the low target of $364.00 is barely above the current price, reflecting more cautious views.
Sentiment Trend
Analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with the same distribution of ratings and a stable average recommendation of 4.25. This suggests analysts are holding their views steady heading into the earnings release, likely waiting to see whether Q3 results and guidance confirm the sustainability of the alternatives-driven growth story.
Valuation Implications
The consensus price target of $440.62 implies that analysts believe the market is undervaluing AMG's earnings power and growth trajectory. With the stock trading at $362.96, the 21.4% implied upside reflects confidence that the firm's shift toward higher-margin alternatives, strong AUM growth, and consistent capital returns (including share buybacks) will drive further appreciation. However, the wide target range—from $364 to $523—highlights differing views on execution risk, flow sustainability, and the potential for margin pressure or performance fee volatility to disrupt the narrative.
Part 4: Technical Picture
AMG's technical setup heading into earnings shows a stock that has lost momentum in recent weeks, with the Barchart Technical Opinion signaling caution. The current reading stands at 40% Buy, down sharply from 88% Buy a week ago and 96% Buy a month ago. This deterioration reflects a notable shift in near-term sentiment, with the stock pulling back from recent highs and trading below most key moving averages.
The stock is currently priced at $362.96, sitting below the 5-day ($363.57), 10-day ($377.46), 20-day ($381.05), 50-day ($371.67), and 100-day ($365.97) moving averages, but above the 200-day moving average of $333.49. This configuration suggests the stock is in a short-term downtrend but remains in a longer-term uptrend, with the 200-day average providing a key support level.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Buy): The moderate buy signal indicates near-term momentum has weakened, with the stock consolidating after a strong run earlier in the year
- Medium-term (50% Buy): The neutral reading suggests the intermediate-term trend is balanced, with neither bulls nor bears in clear control
- Long-term (50% Buy): The moderate buy signal reflects the stock's longer-term uptrend, supported by its position above the 200-day moving average
Trend Characteristics: The Soft strength and Weakest direction signal indicate the technical environment is fragile heading into earnings, with momentum fading and the stock vulnerable to further downside if results disappoint.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $363.57 | 50-Day MA | $371.67 |
| 10-Day MA | $377.46 | 100-Day MA | $365.97 |
| 20-Day MA | $381.05 | 200-Day MA | $333.49 |
The technical picture is cautionary. AMG has pulled back from recent highs and is trading below all short- and intermediate-term moving averages, suggesting the stock has lost upward momentum. The sharp decline in the Barchart Technical Opinion—from 96% Buy a month ago to just 40% Buy today—underscores the shift in sentiment.
Key support lies at the 200-day moving average of $333.49, which has held throughout the year and represents a critical level to watch. Resistance is clustered around the 20-day moving average at $381.05, which the stock would need to reclaim to signal a resumption of the uptrend.
Heading into earnings, the technical setup is neutral to slightly negative. The stock's recent weakness could set up a favorable risk/reward if results exceed expectations and catalyze a breakout above near-term resistance. However, if the report disappoints or guidance underwhelms, the lack of technical support above the 200-day average leaves the stock vulnerable to a sharper pullback. Traders should watch for a decisive move above $381 to confirm renewed strength, or a break below $363 to signal further downside risk.