Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Qualys typically reports earnings after the market close, meaning Day 0 reflects anticipatory moves before results are released, while Day +1 captures the first full trading session where the market reacts to the actual numbers.

Qualys has exhibited significant volatility around earnings, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 2.49% and an average Day +1 move of 9.72%. The Day +1 range averages 11.42%, indicating substantial intraday swings following the release.

The most dramatic post-earnings moves occurred in November 2024 and November 2025, when the stock surged 24.18% and 20.56% respectively on Day +1, reflecting strong reactions to better-than-expected results. Conversely, the stock experienced sharp declines in February 2026 (-13.31% on Day +1) and August 2026 (+13.78% on Day +1, following a +3.98% Day 0 move).

Recent quarters show more muted Day 0 reactions—May 2026 saw just a -0.38% move—but Day +1 volatility remains elevated. The pattern suggests that while initial after-hours reactions can be modest, the first full trading session often brings significant repricing as investors digest the full earnings picture and guidance. Investors should expect a potential move in the 6-12% range based on historical averages, with the possibility of larger swings if results or guidance deviate meaningfully from expectations.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an expected move of 6.37% by the November 20 expiration, which is below the stock's average historical Day +1 move of 9.72% and well below the average Day +1 range of 11.42%. This suggests the options market may be underpricing potential post-earnings volatility, particularly given Qualys' history of double-digit swings following recent earnings releases.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analyst sentiment on Qualys is mixed to cautious, with a consensus rating of 3.41 (between Hold and Buy) based on 22 analysts. The breakdown shows 5 Strong Buys, 0 Moderate Buys, 16 Holds, 1 Moderate Sell, and 0 Strong Sells. The rating distribution has remained unchanged over the past month, with the sentiment trend classified as unchanged.

The average price target stands at $189.39, implying modest upside from the current price of $190.41. However, there is a wide range of views, with the high target at $241.00 and the low target at $130.00, reflecting significant disagreement among analysts about the stock's fair value.

The unchanged sentiment over the past month suggests analysts are taking a wait-and-see approach heading into earnings. While the consensus target is roughly in line with the current price, the wide dispersion of targets—from $130 to $241—indicates that opinions are polarized. Some analysts see significant upside if Qualys can accelerate growth through its AI-driven platform and partner channel, while others remain cautious about modest customer spending, limited new business contributions, and competitive pressures from larger platforms and hyperscalers bundling overlapping security tools.

Part 4: Technical Picture

The Barchart Technical Opinion for Qualys currently stands at 64% Buy, down from 100% Buy last week and 100% Buy last month, signaling a notable weakening in technical momentum heading into earnings. The signal remains a Buy, but the sharp decline in strength suggests near-term pressure.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal indicates near-term momentum has cooled significantly from the strong readings seen in recent weeks
• Medium-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal suggests consolidation in the intermediate timeframe as the stock digests recent gains
• Long-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal reflects continued strength in the longer-term trend, indicating the broader uptrend remains intact

Trend Characteristics: The trend is characterized as Strong in direction but Weakest in momentum, suggesting that while the underlying uptrend remains in place, near-term momentum has deteriorated sharply, creating a more uncertain setup heading into the earnings release.

The stock is currently trading at $190.41, which is below the 5-day moving average of $203.82, below the 10-day moving average of $215.01, below the 20-day moving average of $205.52, and below the 50-day moving average of $190.76. However, it remains above the 100-day moving average of $173.21 and above the 200-day moving average of $136.30.

The technical setup heading into earnings is mixed. While the stock remains well above its longer-term moving averages—indicating a solid uptrend over the past several months—it has pulled back sharply from recent highs and now sits below all short- and intermediate-term moving averages. The 50-day moving average at $190.76 is a key level to watch; the stock is currently just below it, suggesting this could act as near-term resistance.

The sharp decline in the Barchart Technical Opinion from 100% Buy to 64% Buy over the past month, combined with the "Weakest" momentum reading, suggests that technical conditions have deteriorated rapidly. This creates a more cautious setup for earnings, as the stock lacks the strong momentum that often supports positive reactions to in-line or modestly better results. Investors should be aware that the stock is trading near a technical inflection point, and the earnings reaction could determine whether it reclaims the 50-day moving average and resumes its uptrend or breaks lower toward the 100-day moving average at $173.21.