Medicover AB (publ) (STO:MCOV B) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.8% to kr267 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €571m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at €0.17 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Medicover's five analysts is for revenues of €2.59b in 2027. This would reflect an okay 4.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 45% to €0.85. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €2.59b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.85 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Medicover
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of kr279, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Medicover analyst has a price target of kr349 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr235. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Medicover's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 3.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Medicover is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Medicover going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Medicover that you need to take into consideration.
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