Adient plc (NYSE:ADNT) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.3% to US$16.30 in the week after its latest yearly results. Revenues came in at US$15b, in line with estimates, while Adient reported a statutory loss of US$0.22 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Adient's eleven analysts currently expect revenues in 2027 to be US$15.1b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Adient is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$1.84 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$15.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.84 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
See our latest analysis for Adient
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$26.91, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Adient, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$64.00 and the most bearish at US$17.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.6% annualised decline to the end of 2027. That is a notable change from historical growth of 1.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.1% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Adient's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Adient's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Adient going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see whether Adient is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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