BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:BCRX) just released its latest third-quarter results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 8.8% to hit US$180m. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals also reported a statutory profit of US$0.14, which was an impressive 69% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from ten analysts covering BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is for revenues of US$736.4m in 2027. This implies a disturbing 23% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.68 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$736.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.68 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$20.55, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic BioCryst Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$32.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$11.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 19% annualised decline to the end of 2027. That is a notable change from historical growth of 36% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 21% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$20.55, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple BioCryst Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.
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