As you might know, X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:XFOR) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. Revenues of US$2.9m beat estimates by a substantial 25% margin. Unfortunately, X4 Pharmaceuticals also reported a statutory loss of US$0.16 per share, which at least was smaller than the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
After the latest results, the consensus from X4 Pharmaceuticals' five analysts is for revenues of US$11.6m in 2027, which would reflect a stressful 32% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to narrow 8.2% to US$0.72 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$11.6m and US$0.71 per share in losses.
Check out our latest analysis for X4 Pharmaceuticals
The average price target fell 57% to US$11.60, with the ongoing losses seemingly a concern for the analysts, despite the lack of real change to the earnings forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on X4 Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$13.00 and the most bearish at US$10.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 26% by the end of 2027. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 69% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 21% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - X4 Pharmaceuticals is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that X4 Pharmaceuticals' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on X4 Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for X4 Pharmaceuticals going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for X4 Pharmaceuticals you should be aware of.
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