It's been a sad week for ICF International, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICFI), who've watched their investment drop 17% to US$79.68 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$470m, statutory earnings beat expectations 3.7%, with ICF International reporting profits of US$1.76 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from ICF International's five analysts is for revenues of US$2.02b in 2027. This would reflect a solid 10% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 28% to US$6.91. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.91 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
See our latest analysis for ICF International
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$107, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ICF International at US$124 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$80.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await ICF International shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ICF International's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that ICF International's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.1% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect ICF International to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$107, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ICF International. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple ICF International analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of ICF International's balance sheet, and whether we think ICF International is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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