What Willdan Group’s latest earnings tell you
Willdan Group (WLDN) just released third quarter and year to date results alongside a fresh financing move, giving investors new numbers on profitability, growth and balance sheet flexibility to assess.
Recent trading tells a different story to the earnings headlines. Willdan Group’s share price has fallen 6.53% over the past day and is down 37.91% year to date, yet the 3 year total shareholder return of 248.53% still points to a strong longer run outcome. This suggests the latest Q3 results, the Mantis acquisition and the new US$250.0m term loan are being weighed as higher risk moves in the short term rather than a simple growth setback.
Surf 19 high quality undiscovered gems that, similar to Willdan Group after its Mantis deal and fresh term loan, are reshaping their growth mix under the radar.Willdan Group now combines a higher growth pitch, a big Mantis acquisition and a US$250.0m term loan with a share price that has retreated sharply. Does that package add up to a fair valuation today?
Most Popular Narrative: 52% Undervalued
On the most followed view, Willdan Group’s recent close of $66.22 sits well below an implied fair value of $137.50, with that gap anchored to long term contract work, acquisition integration and changing tax assumptions rather than short term sentiment.
Willdan Group's shift toward higher-margin commercial customers, with commercial activity expected to reach about 25% of the business in 2026 and a major contribution from data center electricity work, is increasing the share of revenue that can carry lower overhead and support higher adjusted EBITDA margins. The build out of recurring commercial energy management and procurement contracts, including the Burton Energy Group operations and the pending Mantis Innovation acquisition, is adding multiyear revenue streams that can smooth cash flows and support more stable net margins and EPS over time.
See why 23 investors see Willdan Group as 52% undervalued.
The fair value of $137.50 in this narrative is built using a 7.58% discount rate and analyst assumptions that revenue can eventually reach $1.2b with earnings of $75.3m and a P/E of 38.1x by 2029. That framework also bakes in a shift to a 15% to 20% effective tax rate and continued integration of Burton and the planned Mantis purchase, so any change in contract mix, pricing or acquisition performance could move that valuation band over time.
Result: Fair Value of $137.50 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the Willdan Group story can break if the higher 15% to 20% tax rate bites harder than expected or if Burton and Mantis integration disappoints.
Find out about the key risks to this Willdan Group narrative.
Next Steps
Does the bullish tone here match your own read of Willdan Group, or does something not quite line up yet? Move quickly and stress test the thesis against the 4 key rewards
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