The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that considering that the endogenous stability of Chinese assets is still strong, compounded by the recent strengthening of stabilization policies, the attractiveness of Chinese assets is increasing. The path to falling capital costs under AI deceleration is clear. The first half of the impact comes from a simultaneous decline in return on capital, and the second half will usher in opportunities for the world. Some signs of resilience and marginal improvement in performance have already emerged. It is recommended to look for defensive allocation clues from the macro+ industry lines.
Specific allocation suggestions: First, real interest rates in the US have peaked and fallen, and gold is expected to usher in an opportunity. Follow-up attention is being paid to whether the strength of the US and Iran is picking up, yet the mid-term bottom is being established; second, for the energy chain (coal, petroleum, oil transportation), it will continue to benefit from global demand for energy replenishment after a short-term price drop. In fact, the energy chain itself is also a resilient asset under capital cost fluctuations and geopolitical conflicts; Third, from a financial perspective, suggestions to focus on: ① Continued boom in medical services, shipping ports, and chemicals Segmentation, etc.; ② reversal of difficult situations Strategy: textile and garment segments, as well as papermaking, refining and trade, medical devices, express delivery, dairy products, etc.
Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:
Global computing power starts simultaneous pullback
Fluctuations in the US stock market increased significantly this week (November 2 to November 6, 2026, same below). Affected by the release of the midterm elections and the Democratic Party's sweep of the “two houses”, the market began to re-evaluate the policy risks faced by the expansion of AI data centers after the US midterm elections, and the AI computing power chain experienced concentrated sell-off. Among them, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded the second decline in history on Thursday. Under the spread of panic, global risk assets were under significant pressure, while safe-haven assets such as gold and US bonds rose. As far as policy risk itself is concerned, strengthening supervision and scrutiny of data centers has already crossed party boundaries. The difference is more in the scope and extent of restrictions involved. Compared with the Democratic Party, which is more strict, more candidates support the imposition of bans or suspensions. The root cause of the intense market reaction may still be that in the previous three quarterly reports of cloud vendors, the speed of payment of AI-related profits and cash flow is difficult to match the expansion of capital expenditure. The core contradiction between future return on investment and financing sustainability has not been resolved. Combined with the second-order slowdown in capital expenditure expectations of core cloud vendors (META, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Oracle, same below), any potential downside risk can easily be interpreted by the market as a sign that the hardware boom cycle has substantially peaked, and the Democratic Party's “big win” after the election was successful. This concern was further exacerbated, and eventually triggered full risk aversion in the market.
The US AI siphon effect is weakening, the top interest rate is basically confirmed, and the downside needs to be observed
Objectively speaking, there are still more changes at the level of market expectations. Considering that, as the main driver of US economic growth in the past two years, AI data center construction itself has strong employment and revenue generation capabilities, so in the future, it is still necessary to closely track the substantive implementation of each elected person's policies and the final return on cloud vendor data center projects after completing new reviews and cost sharing. However, with regard to a new round of rising trends in the AI market in the future, the more important possibility is whether new application scenarios can be implemented or evidence of wider penetration into various macroeconomic industries will occur in the future, leading to an increase in return on investment, and eventually break through the positive cycle of “cloud business growth → cash flow repair → capital expenditure expansion”. As far as interest rates on US bonds are concerned, expectations of a slowdown in AI capital expenditure have been further strengthened. However, since October, the US manufacturing PMI and non-agricultural data show that the fundamentals of the US economy are still resilient. Combined oil prices are high, and there is still room for short-term downside to be observed. The rapid decline in interest rates still needs to wait for substantial signs of a rapid contraction in AI financing or a decline in oil prices after a major easing in the US and Iran.
At the end of a strong dollar, Chinese assets showed resilience amid fluctuations
Despite overseas disturbances, this week, thanks to joint efforts to stabilize capital market forces such as stabilizing capital market entry and market repurchases, combined with their own horizontal and lower valuation level, there is some decoupling from the US AI industry chain. A and H shares showed some resilience. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ended 12 consecutive weeks of decline, while the Hang Seng Index/Hang Seng Technology rose 5.1%/8.6% weekly, showing a relative dominance among major global markets. This round of global AI deceleration has reduced the ability of US dollar assets to attract global capital from a long-term perspective. It is beneficial in the medium term for non-US assets, and Chinese assets are an important choice, so we should not be pessimistic in the long run.
Judging from the breadth of the market, whether within all A stocks or technology stocks, there was a bottoming out this week, and there was a marginal improvement in market breadth under the resilience of A-shares. Based on the transaction indicators we have continued to track before: ① The two-loan guarantee ratio was 262.6% as of this Thursday, up from last Friday's low of 245.56%. However, considering that A-shares also fell due to fluctuations in overseas markets on Friday, if Friday's market adjustments are taken into account (assuming that the remaining conditions remain unchanged, estimated at 1.86% of Wandequan A), the two-loan guarantee ratio on Friday may fall to around 257.7% compared to Thursday. ② Currently, the implied volatility of the market is still high. Currently, the implied volatility of the Science and Technology Innovation 50, GEM Index, and China Securities 1000 have all further risen to the quantile level of 95% or more in the past three years, while last Friday it was in the quantile of 90% or more in the past three years.