Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRDN) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$26m exceeding analyst forecasts by 445%, and statutory losses of US$0.81 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Viridian Therapeutics' 14 analysts is for revenues of US$299.6m in 2027. This reflects a sizeable 1,039% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 35% to US$2.26. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$237.8m and losses of US$2.55 per share in 2027. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.
Check out our latest analysis for Viridian Therapeutics
It will come as no surprise to learn thatthe analysts have increased their price target for Viridian Therapeutics 10% to US$39.87on the back of these upgrades. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Viridian Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$54.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$22.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Viridian Therapeutics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6x annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 76% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 22% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Viridian Therapeutics is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Viridian Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Viridian Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Viridian Therapeutics is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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