Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$342m, some 2.7% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.31, 58% ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Acadia Pharmaceuticals from 19 analysts is for revenues of US$1.45b in 2027. If met, it would imply a sizeable 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 54% to US$0.96 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.90 in 2027. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
View our latest analysis for Acadia Pharmaceuticals
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$30.68, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Acadia Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$38.00 and the most bearish at US$16.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Acadia Pharmaceuticals' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Acadia Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 16% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 22% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Acadia Pharmaceuticals is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Acadia Pharmaceuticals following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$30.68, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Acadia Pharmaceuticals going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Acadia Pharmaceuticals .
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