Empresas CMPC S.A. (SNSE:CMPC) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.5% to CL$898 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$1.9b were in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.0029, some 18% smaller than was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Following the latest results, Empresas CMPC's twelve analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$8.01b in 2027. This would be a satisfactory 6.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 177% to US$0.07. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$8.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.091 in 2027. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Empresas CMPC
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CL$1,496, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Empresas CMPC analyst has a price target of CL$3,030 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CL$921. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Empresas CMPC's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Empresas CMPC's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 4.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.0% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 5.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Empresas CMPC is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at CL$1,496, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Empresas CMPC going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Empresas CMPC has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.
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