What would a $1,000 investment in Home Depot (NYSE:HD) be worth today if made at the November 2016 month-end close, with dividends taken as cash? At the time, the purchase price was $129.40 a share, while the stock closed at $343.47 on Nov. 6, 2026.
Dividend Checks Totaled $517, and Share Price Gains Made Up Most of the ReturnOver that period, the stake paid out $517 in cash dividends. The shares are now worth $2,654, so the combined total comes to $3,171. The quarterly dividend went from $0.69 in 2016 to $2.33 in 2026, and the yield is now 2.71%.
A strong housing and remodeling market supported the early years. The pandemic added to that as homeowners spent more on their homes during lockdowns. Starting in 2022, higher mortgage rates slowed home sales, and Home Depot leaned harder into professional contractors. It bought SRS Distribution in 2024 and GMS in 2025, and SRS now runs over 1,340 locations.
A Decade That Trailed the Market, With Flat Shares for Five of Those Years1-Year Return
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $957
- Total Return: -4.28%
- S&P 500 (same period): $1,097 (9.69%)
5-Year Return
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $1,059
- Total Return: 5.86%
- Annualized Return: 1.1%
- S&P 500 (same period): $1,569 (56.94%)
10-Year Return
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $3,171 (shares plus cash dividends)
- Total Return: 217.1%
- Annualized Return: 12.2%
- S&P 500 (from Nov. 8, 2016): $3,434 (243.42%)
The S&P 500 figures track the price change of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY). Nearly all of Home Depot’s gains came before late 2021. From Nov. 5, 2021, the shares went from $324.45 to $343.47.
Existing home sales ran at an annualized rate of 3.99 million in September 2026. On the August earnings call, Richard McPhail said housing turnover “has never been lower as a percentage of the housing stock.”
Reinvested Dividends Would Have Grown the Stake to $3,371If those dividends had gone back into more shares, the stake would be worth $3,371, compared with $3,171 when they were taken as cash. The total return comes to 237.1% versus 217.1%.
Housing Turnover and Rates Shape the Outlook at 24x EarningsHome Depot trades at about 24 times earnings, which is the share price divided by a year of profit. For fiscal 2026, the company expects adjusted EPS growth of flat to 4.0%. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.84% on Nov. 5, 2026, and that yield helps set mortgage rates.
A $1,000 position today lines up with the view that contractor sales and an eventual housing recovery will drive growth past that guidance. Pro comps were positive last quarter, and SRS beat the company average.
It lines up less well with the view that turnover stays near today’s lows. In Q2, SG&A grew 8.5% while revenue grew 5.7%, and debt-to-equity is at 5.10. The last decade included five years of nearly flat shares, and past returns don’t guarantee the next ten years.