Macerich (MAC) just gave investors a fresh look at its turnaround by releasing third quarter results that showed a much smaller net loss, slightly higher revenue and an update on portfolio repositioning and occupancy.
Recent trading suggests investors are responding to Macerich's progress. The share price has gained 34.13% year to date and delivered an 11.64% 1 month share price return, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 42.40% and 3 year total shareholder return of about 1.7x point to momentum that has been building rather than fading.
Compare how Macerich’s turnaround story stacks up against other real estate players that have stronger balance sheets and cash flows by running the list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (25 results).
Macerich’s shares have already rerated sharply on shrinking losses and higher occupancy, yet the valuation still reflects a company with net losses and a discounted intrinsic value. Is most of the payoff already behind the stock, or is it not yet fully priced in?
Most Popular Narrative: 6.5% Undervalued
Macerich last closed at $24.84, while the most followed narrative pegs fair value at $26.56 using an 8.41% discount rate. This frames today’s price as a modest discount to that long term view.
The main factor that has to go right is continued execution on the Path Forward plan. This includes converting the remaining signed-not-open pipeline into operating tenants, while completing planned asset sales and high yield acquisitions so that leverage continues to move toward the stated net debt-to-EBITDA target.
See why 1 investors see Macerich as 6% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $26.56 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the Macerich narrative can break if high leverage and refinancing needs bite harder than expected, or if e commerce pressure drags on key tenants.
Find out about the key risks to this Macerich narrative.
Next Steps
If this mix of risks and rewards around Macerich feels finely balanced, take prompt action and weigh the evidence for yourself using the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Macerich?
Do not stop your research with a single turnaround story. Cast the net wider and pressure test your portfolio against fresh ideas that fit your goals.
- Target resilient cash generators by scanning companies with the 31 resilient stocks with low risk scores and see which businesses pair durability with measured risk.
- Hunt for mispriced quality by running the 38 high quality undervalued stocks and compare potential bargains against what you already own.
- Spot tomorrow’s potential standouts early by reviewing the 19 high quality undiscovered gems before the broader market pays attention.
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