The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report that it is expected that the world will add 433 GWh (+38%) of new energy storage capacity in 2026, 1,186 GWh in 2030, and a CAGR of about 31% from 2025 to 2030. Domestic energy storage battery sales from January to September were 595.4 GWh, +112% year over year, and 103.2 GWh exported, +46% year over year. It is recommended to focus on leading large storage companies, as well as household storage companies with strong ability to iterate overseas product development and leading channel layout.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
Overseas savings: the US and Europe resonate with emerging markets, and household storage is flourishing in many places around the world
The bank expects to add 433 GWh (+38%) of the world's new energy storage systems in 2026, and a CAGR of about 31% from 2025 to 2030. Among them, Europe, Middle East Africa, and Asia Pacific (excluding China) have the fastest growth rate; in 2026, global energy storage battery shipments are 936 GWh (+70%), corresponding to the energy storage system market output value of about 752.3 billion yuan. Global household savings will continue to grow in 2027. The European region is concerned about inventory digestion and new demand brought about by dynamic electricity prices; emerging markets in Asia and Africa continue to develop. From 2028 to 2030, the growth momentum of household energy storage systems will gradually shift to existing photovoltaic installations, electric vehicles and household energy management, and virtual power plants. There is still room to improve penetration in the UK and emerging markets, and Brazil is also worth focusing on. Product development, price competition, and local service capabilities will determine the regional market pattern. Domestic energy storage battery sales from January to September were 595.4 GWh, +112% year over year, and 103.2 GWh exported, +46% year over year.
Domestic large storage: leading installation in tenders, capacity electricity prices open up revenue space for independent energy storage
2026 is the year the independent energy storage capacity electricity price mechanism was implemented (Document No. 114 was the first time that a new type of independent energy storage on the power grid side was included in the capacity price system at the national level). From January to September, domestic energy storage systems and equipment EPC tenders (including collection) were 451.9 GWh, +48% year over year, 391.5 GWh excluding collection caliber, +82% year over year. The installed side was affected by the high base of the two rounds of installation in May and December 2025. From January to September, 102.3 GWh of installed capacity was added, which was only +6% over the previous year; the gap between bidding and installation means that the grid connection scale is expected to continue to grow in 2027.
The price of lithium carbonate returns, and the profit of the industrial chain is repaired
Lithium carbonate fell by about 53% to 93,600 yuan/ton from a high in May 2026. The pressure on the cost side will ease, and profit margins in the system and battery sector are expected to recover.
Risk warning: Domestic electricity prices fall short of expectations, overseas trade barriers (US tariffs and FEOC provisions), sharp fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices, declining household storage subsidy policies, and increased industry competition.