Mineralys Therapeutics (MLYS) just put fresh clinical data on the table, reporting long term Transform HTN extension results that showed sustained systolic blood pressure reductions and a steady safety profile as the FDA review progresses.
Mineralys Therapeutics has been in reverse this year, with the share price down about 34% over the past month and 57% year to date, and the 1 year total shareholder return down about 60%, even though the 3 year total shareholder return is still more than double. The latest clinical readout and recent Q3 earnings loss of US$57.33 million, together with a deeper year to date loss of US$337.74 million, frame today’s US$15.33 share price as a reflection of how investors are reassessing both the potential upside from lorundrostat and the risks tied to ongoing cash burn and licensing commitments.
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Bulls see Mineralys Therapeutics as a mispriced hypertension platform after a sharp sell off. Bears focus on mounting losses and milestone obligations. Which side do the current valuation markers support next?
Most Popular Narrative: 66% Undervalued
Against the last close of $15.33, the most followed narrative pegs Mineralys Therapeutics at a fair value of about $45.22. The current quote therefore sits well below what those long term models imply at a 7.52% discount rate.
Progress toward an NDA filing for lorundrostat in uncontrolled and resistant hypertension, supported by multiple Phase III and proof of concept trials, positions the company to potentially transition from a pure R&D story toward a revenue generating profile, which could materially affect future revenue and earnings visibility.
See why 4 investors see Mineralys Therapeutics as 66% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $45.22 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the narrative around Mineralys Therapeutics can change quickly if the FDA asks for extra lorundrostat data, or if class competition squeezes pricing and slows uptake.
Find out about the key risks to this Mineralys Therapeutics narrative.
Next Steps
Plenty of Mineralys Therapeutics holders see a bargain while others focus on the downside, so consider acting quickly, review the evidence yourself, and then weigh the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs
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