The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the current cost of global offshore wind power is economical to replace traditional fossil energy, and its carbon emissions throughout the life cycle are also an ideal clean energy choice. Looking ahead to 2026-2030, China will add 4/12/15/18/24 GW of offshore wind power installations, adding a total of 73 GW, of which 29 GW is deep sea. Priority is given to submarine cable companies with 330 kV/500 kV AC and flexible cable transmission capabilities, followed by pipe pile companies with leading conduit frame production capacity and terminal conditions and overseas orders.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
Offshore wind power is the mainstream choice for global clean energy development
Currently, the global cost of offshore wind power is an economical alternative to traditional fossil energy, and its carbon emissions throughout the life cycle are also an ideal clean energy choice. The offshore wind power industry has many external friendliness: 1. The project is far from people's living areas, is less prone to environmental problems such as noise and landscape, and there are no road restrictions during construction; 2. It has a wide area, and can choose an area with better wind conditions and a higher capacity coefficient; 3. It is reliable and close to power load centers, and related infrastructure costs are lower; 4. Offshore wind power is a technology-intensive and highly innovative field. The development of offshore wind power can cultivate and support emerging local industries and drive fixed asset investment and employment.
Chinese market demand and project base: the “15th Five-Year Plan” offshore wind power has been connected to the grid for more than 100 million kilowatts, with approval for leading installations
The outline of the “15th Five-Year Plan” proposes to lay out offshore wind power bases in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea, and strive to connect more than 100 million kilowatts of offshore wind power to the grid; the National Energy Administration proposed increasing the share of terminal electricity to about 35% by 2030. From January to September 2026, Haifeng added 2.45 GW of installed capacity (-30% year over year), but 8.9 GW (+41% year over year) was approved from January to October, and improvements on the approval side provided reserves for the release after 2027.
Scale and economic benefits: 24 GW will be added in 2030, and the deep sea will account for 58.3%
The bank looks forward to adding 4/12/15/18/24 GW of offshore wind power installations from 2026 to 2030, adding a total of 73 GW, of which 29 GW is deep sea. The estimated value of the three types of deep-sea core equipment — submarine cables, pipe piles, and fans — is 5.9 billion yuan per GW of equipment. With the rapid expansion of the offshore wind power market, the output value of these three types of equipment market will increase from about 20 billion yuan to 132.6 billion yuan by 2030, and the incremental profit of the industry will exceed 15 billion yuan.
Risk warning: Sea breeze approval and construction progress falls short of expectations, deep-sea marine use and delivery projects are slowing down, industry competition intensifies, raw material price fluctuations, deviations in value measurement assumptions, and equipment and construction installation quality and safety risks.