According to Woofun AI, BTC fell below the 50-week moving average, which had been maintained for 7 weeks in weekly trading, triggering a reassessment by the market of the effectiveness of the June low. According to Galaxy Research (GLXY.US) data, BTC closed at around $75,000 for the 8-day week, 0.7% lower than the 50-week moving average of about $75,500. This is another decline after a lapse of 7 weeks after breaking through this indicator again on September 20. Although the current price is about 7.6% lower than the closing price of $81,195 when it recovered in September, it is still about 26% higher than the weekly low closing price of $59,517 recorded in June.
Alex Sun, head of the Galaxy Research Institute, pointed out that historical data showed that another fall below the 50-week EMA did not necessarily lead to a new low. In the 2011-2012 and 2019—2020 cycles, BTC fell back below after breaking through the 50-week moving average, but none of them showed a weekly closing price below the previous low, and then the price returned to a high point.
Currently, however, BTC's ability to withstand falls is weak. When BTC broke through the 50-week EMA again in September, its price was about 36% higher than the June low; in comparison, it was 79% higher in 2019 and 223% higher in 2012.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the 50-week EMA is currently at around $75,500, and the value of the 200-week moving average below it, which is regarded as a long-term support line, is around $67,700.
Sun stressed that in the past, there were only 5 cases where the 50-week EMA was broken after forming a low point, and it was difficult to determine the low point based on technical indicators alone. He warned that if it is not possible to break through again within a month after falling below the 50-week moving average, previous judgments about the strengthening of the trend will need to be re-examined. The market is watching closely to see if BTC can break above the 50-week moving average again to confirm whether the current trend constitutes a new downtrend.