According to Woofun AI, the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US) experienced serious capital withdrawal, with a net weekly outflow of 1,282 million US dollars, setting a record for the largest weekly outflow since June 22 to 28. This data directly shatters expectations that bulls will rely on ETF funding to drive continued price increases until the end of the year, and marks a significant weakness on the institutional demand side.
Judging from the microstructure of capital flows, there has been a decline in four of the past five trading days, resulting in a year-to-date cumulative net worth turning negative, and cumulative losses of US$914 million. This is in stark contrast to the more than $6 billion capital inflow that occurred at the beginning of the year, when the annual capital flow changed briefly on September 22. The current background of investors leaving again is the weak performance of Wall Street AI-related stocks and technology stocks, and the NASDAQ index has been falling for five consecutive weeks.
This deterioration in the macro environment has intensified the market's doubts about Bitcoin's attributes as “digital gold” and a “safe haven asset,” while also shaking the logical assumption that once the AI hype subsides, capital will automatically flow into Bitcoin.
Notably, during periods when traditional financial markets were closed, derivatives on cryptocurrency platforms showed independent price discovery capabilities. On Sunday evening EST, CNBC and other media reported that Nvidia (NVDA.US) CEO Huang Renxun admitted having an affair with a woman suspected of being a Chinese spy, and the board of directors has launched an investigation.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the NVDA token corresponding to the xStocks platform fell by 4%, and perpetual contracts related to NVDA on Binance and Hyperliquid platforms also showed a similar decline. The actual NVDA stock price also fell by about 4% in Monday's pre-market trading. Tagus Capital pointed out in the email that this fully demonstrates the continuing maturity of native cryptocurrency derivatives as reliable tools for 24/7 price discovery and real-world asset trading outside of standard Wall Street trading hours.
The key variable for future trends is the US Consumer Price Index released on Tuesday. If inflation data falls below expectations, bond yields may fall, favoring risky assets, but Marex (MRX.US) analysts warned that although the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds fell to 4.85%, the slight rise in German and UK treasury bonds provided limited support, which was not enough to offset the continued net ETF outflow and additional leverage. Compared to the net inflow rate of over 2 billion US dollars per quarter in the previous two years, the current capital withdrawal rate is slow but the direction is clear. Without new ETF capital inflows, it is still difficult to continue to rebound.