Phase 3 ALKIVIA data puts argenx in focus
argenx (ENXTBR:ARGX) is back on investor radars after its Phase 3 ALKIVIA trial hit both primary and key secondary endpoints in immune mediated necrotizing myopathy and dermatomyositis using efgartigimod.
This is the first Phase 3 study to show statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefit in immune mediated necrotizing myopathy, a condition with no approved treatments. The company plans an FDA Supplemental Biologics License Application by the end of 2026.
The ALKIVIA update lands after a strong run in argenx shares, with a 12.0% 1 month share price return and 12.7% year to date gain, backed by a 9.5% 1 year total shareholder return and a very large 5 year total shareholder return of just over 3x.
Spot similar trial driven breakouts across biotech by scanning our curated list of 572 high quality undiscovered gems, while argenx’s ALKIVIA results are still front of mind.argenx now trades after a sharp, trial-driven jump, with the ALKIVIA win already reflected in expectations. Does the current price still offer enough potential upside to justify the risk relative to what you are paying today?
Most Popular Narrative: 19% Overvalued
argenx last closed at €815.80, while the most followed narrative on the stock places its fair value at €686.43 using a 7.0% discount rate, implying the shares sit above that estimate today.
👉 Core thesis:
• If VYVGART becomes a multi-indication platform drug, this could lead to significant upside.
• If the pipeline fails or pricing pressure intensifies, this could result in material downside risk.
See why 2 investors see argenx as 19% overvalued.
Result: Fair Value of €686.43 (OVERVALUED)
Still, argenx depends heavily on VYVGART and faces clinical trial and pricing setbacks that could quickly undermine this overvaluation story.
Find out about the key risks to this argenx narrative.
Another View: argenx through the cash flow lens
While the leading narrative tags argenx as 19% overvalued at €686.43 per share, the SWS DCF model points in the opposite direction. On this view the shares at €815.80 trade about 75.7% below an estimated future cash flow value of €3,351.72, which raises a different question: Is the market overpaying on earnings, or underpricing long term cash generation?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out argenx for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 222 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
Sentiment on argenx is split, with trial success on one side and valuation questions on the other. Move quickly, inspect the numbers directly, and weigh both the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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