The Zhitong Finance App learned that the latest consumer expectations survey released by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday showed that US consumers' inflation expectations remained stable in October, but concerns about the future job market have clearly intensified, and it is expected that the unemployment rate will rise to the highest level since 2020 in the next year.
According to the survey, US consumers' inflation expectations for the next year remain at 3.9%, and the inflation expectations for the next three and five years have stabilized at 3.3% and 3%, respectively, indicating that despite continued price pressure recently, consumers' judgment on medium- to long-term inflation trends has not deteriorated further.
However, the job market outlook shows more mixed signals. According to the survey, consumers believe that the average probability that the US unemployment rate will rise to 45.3% in the next 12 months, the highest level since April 2020. This change is mainly driven by respondents who have not obtained a college degree.
At the same time, consumer confidence in finding a new job after losing their job has improved. According to the survey, the average probability of an unemployed person thinking they can find a new job has risen for the second month in a row, reaching its highest level since November 2025.
Despite the Iran war driving up energy prices and putting wider inflationary pressure on the US, the labor market has performed well so far. According to the employment report released by the US government on Friday, the number of non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
Federal Reserve officials have pointed out many times before that the US labor market is currently in a delicate balance where recruitment and layoff activities are relatively sluggish. The New York Federal Reserve's latest survey also reflects this characteristic, that is, consumers think the probability of losing their current job in the next year has increased slightly, while the possibility of voluntarily leaving their job has decreased.
As inflation continues to be above target and the job market remains resilient, the Federal Reserve is facing pressure to further tighten monetary policy. At the October meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.75% to 4% range, and said it needed to accumulate more economic data to determine the appropriate policy interest rate level.
Since then, several Federal Reserve officials have said that it may be necessary to continue to gradually raise interest rates in order to push inflation back to the 2% target. The market is currently awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October to be released on Tuesday to further determine the trend of inflation and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy in December.
In addition to employment and inflation expectations, the New York Federal Reserve survey also showed that American consumers still have mixed feelings about their own financial situation.
On the credit side, consumers' views on how easy it is to get a loan have not changed much, but the average probability of not being able to pay the minimum debt repayment amount on time in the next three months is expected to rise to the highest level since December last year, reflecting that the financial pressure on some households is still increasing. Compared to a year ago, there was a slight increase in the proportion of households that thought their financial situation had improved, but there was also a slight increase in the proportion of respondents who expect their financial situation to deteriorate in the coming year.
It is worth noting that the US economy as a whole has maintained a strong growth momentum. According to the data, the US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, the fastest growth rate in a year. Other recent consumer surveys also showed that American households' confidence in their own financial situation has improved.
Overall, the New York Federal Reserve's latest survey shows that although US consumers' inflation expectations remain stable and economic growth and employment data show resilience, concerns about the risk of unemployment and household debt are still rising. This situation where inflationary pressure and employment uncertainty coexist will also increase the complexity of the Fed's future monetary policy decisions.