The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that the long-term logic of precious metals is solid, and the long-term layout is gradually emerging. On the copper side, the US non-agricultural data for October far exceeded expectations. Strong employment and wages raised expectations of interest rate hikes and US bond yields, putting pressure on copper prices. After the US midterm elections, the US and Iran moderated the rise in expectations, and the expected increase in taxes on refined copper cooled down. Multiple and empty factors were intertwined. Low domestic inventories support inventory, high rising water curbs downstream construction, and focus on next week's US CPI and import arrivals. On the stock side, focus on leading targets that will increase in volume and have a strong ability to deliver results in the future. In terms of rare earths, the prices of light and heavy rare earths have mixed ups and downs. Looking at the medium to long term, we continue to be optimistic about the investment value of rare earths as a key strategic resource.
Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:
Precious metals: Selected to ease the pressure to raise interest rates, and prices rebounded sharply.
The Democratic Party has taken back both houses of the Senate and the House of Representatives. It is expected that fiscal restrictions, the intensity of the war will decrease, and the fall in oil prices will drive inflation to peak and interest rate hikes to cool down. However, in October, the US job market was balanced, as expected from agricultural supermarkets. In October, the FOMC stood still, but internal differences widened, stating that it was an eagle. The central bank reserved 78.3 million ounces at the end of October, increasing its holdings for 24 consecutive months. The long-term logic of precious metals is solid, and the long-term layout gradually appears over time.
Copper: Non-agricultural supermarket expectations, copper price fluctuations are weak.
US non-farm payrolls data for October far exceeded expectations. Strong employment and wages raised expectations of interest rate hikes and US bond yields, putting pressure on copper prices. After the US midterm elections, the US and Iran moderated the rise in expectations, and the expected increase in taxes on refined copper cooled down. Multiple and empty factors were intertwined. Low domestic inventories support inventory, high rising water curbs downstream construction, and focus on next week's US CPI and import arrivals. On the stock side, focus on leading targets that will increase in volume and have a strong ability to deliver results in the future.
Aluminum: Domestic warehousing continues, and aluminum prices are under pressure due to off-season demand. On the demand side, leading aluminum processing companies increased slightly overall, but the operating rates of aluminum sheet strip and aluminum foil dropped 0.4 and 0.1 pct to 68.8% and 71.0%, respectively. On the inventory side, according to SMM statistics, as of November 5, 521,000 tons of electrolyzed aluminum ingots were in stock at mainstream domestic consumption sites, compared to 28,000 tons left in storage last Thursday; low inventory provided support, but shipments declined, and off-season demand was under pressure.
Tin: Low inventories are underpinned, and the rebound is still awaiting improvement in demand. The resumption of smelting and production brought supply reimbursement, and solder companies still mainly procured just what they needed. Expectations from non-agricultural supermarkets in the US have boosted interest rate hikes, compounded by the cooling of AI transactions. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the tight mining side will still provide support. On the stock side, wait for tin prices to stabilize in the short term.
Energy Metals: Weak reality continues, and liquidity expectations drive a rebound in excess decline.
Lithium Carbonate: The main force fell below 90,000 this week and then rebounded. After the US election, the market expected liquidity to return to ease. Colored betas generally rose, and lithium carbonate concentrated profits as a bearish variety in the previous period. Production in Jianxiawo has resumed, and Guoxuan has accepted the EIA. Jiangxi supply was relatively optimistic in '27; production schedules turned negative in November, and inventories were still being eliminated but slowed down. Nickel sector: Indonesia's second batch of quota easing. The 27-year contraction statement has not yet been traded. Indonesia's domestic politics have driven up nickel prices. Cobalt sector: Weak demand coexists with rigid Congolese gold supply. Prices fluctuate at low levels. After storage prices fall, the return of consumer electronics demand is worth looking forward to
Rare earths: Prices of light and heavy rare earths have mixed ups and downs.
In terms of demand and price, on November 6, 2026, the prices of praseodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide were 70.45, 144.50, and 6.275 million yuan/ton, down 70,000 yuan/ton from month to month, up 15,000 yuan/ton, and 50,000 yuan/ton, with increases of -0.98%, +1.05%, and -0.79%. Overall rare earth transactions are still lackluster, and prices are divided. Looking at the medium to long term, we continue to be optimistic about the investment value of rare earths as a key strategic resource.
Strategic small metals: strategic value is prominent.
Tungsten: Mining side reluctance and long order price increases support the short-term strength of tungsten prices. Follow-up on traditional hard alloy orders is limited. Further upward trend depends on whether downstream shifts to active inventory replenishment. On the stock side, priority is given to enterprises with guaranteed raw materials and the ability to raise prices.
Uranium: The long-term price of natural uranium was 91.6 US dollars/pound in October, up from the previous month. Due to supply rigidity and the development of nuclear power, the gap between uranium supply and demand persists, and uranium prices are expected to continue to rise.
Tantalum: A mismatch between supply and demand supports tantalum prices. The price of tantalum ore is $240.5 per pound. The global supply of tantalum ore is tight, and the development of AI is driving rapid growth in terminal demand. It is expected that tantalum prices will remain high, and we will continue to pay attention to the release of production capacity of leading companies.
Risk warning: Downstream demand is weaker than expected, large supply-side releases, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process falls short of expectations.