The Zhitong Finance App learned that on the last trading day (November 9), the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 0.32% to 3660.79 points, the Shenzhen Securities Index fell 0.27% to 11145.49 points, and the GEM index fell 0.27% to 2458.56 points; the turnover of the two markets was 1884.681 billion yuan; up 2,242 companies, down 3148, up and down 1.
Huafu Securities believes that the Democratic Party's recapture of the Senate and House of Representatives has raised concerns about the tightening of AI regulations and the supervision or tightening of state-level data centers; Cathay Pacific Haitong Securities believes that the main line of global asset transactions is dominated by the US election in stages, and expectations of equity and interest rate fluctuations are divided; Huayuan Securities believes that the implementation of easing policies and improvements in the supply and demand of ultra-long bonds support the year-end market, and there is still room for downside in the ultra-long term; SDIC Securities believes that the market is recovering rapidly, and risks are basically limited to a few players.
Cathay Pacific Haitong: Global commodity equity plummeted, repricing dominated by the winner and strong farmers, and expectations of equity and interest rate fluctuations diverged
From 10/30 to 11/06, the main line of global asset trading was dominated by US election results and strong Feinong data: after the election was completed, the market first traded, political uncertainty declined, new US fiscal expansion was limited, and the US-Iran conflict cooled down. US stocks, US bonds, and gold rose, and crude oil plummeted; then, weak AI regulatory expectations and Qualcomm's profit guidance triggered concentrated adjustments in US technology stocks, and safe-haven funds flowed into US bonds; on Friday, Qiang Fei Nong once again boosted expectations for the December Fed's interest rate hike, US dollar and US bond yields rebounded, and gold returned some of its gains.
Looking at the whole week, global equity fell 2.7%, global commodities fell 5.1%, VIX rose 6.2 points to 25.6, and MOVE fell 7.4 points to about 92.8. Expectations of equity and interest rate market fluctuations diverged. Regionally, Nikkei 225 plummeted 9.3%, Korean stock KOSPI fell 11.7%; Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index rose 5.1%, Hengke rose 8.6%; A-share Wandequan A turned 3.4%, Science and Innovation 50 led 8%; and India's SENSEX30 surged 8.8%.
Huafu Securities: The blue wave raised concerns about AI regulations, state-level data center regulations may be tightened, and US employment stabilized in October
As of November 3, the Democratic Party had successfully taken back control of the Senate and House of Representatives, and the “blue wave” raised market concerns about the tightening of regulations in the AI field — previously, some Democratic Party candidates had put forward policy proposals such as restricting data center construction and suspending approval of new projects. On November 5, the US stock technology sector experienced a concentrated sell-off. Market concerns about AI's huge capital expenditure return cycle, financing costs, and data center project delivery capacity heated up simultaneously, and risk aversion continued to drive the decline in US bond yields.
At the state level, Democrat Gina Hinojosa was elected governor of Texas. During her campaign, she repeatedly called for the immediate suspension of data center development, accusing related projects of driving up electricity prices for residents and consuming water resources; Democratic governors from Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other places also made strengthening data center supervision the focus of the campaign. In terms of fundamentals, the US added 165,000 new non-farm payrolls in October. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, and employment stabilized; expectations for US-Iran negotiations are heating up, and the two sides are advancing a new round of diplomatic negotiations through Qatar and other intermediaries.
Huayuan Securities: Policy interest rate switching and implementation, easing and improved supply and demand for ultra-long bonds supported the year-end market. There is still room for downside in the ultra-long term
The implementation of the easing policy and the improvement in the supply and demand pattern of ultra-long bonds are expected to jointly support the bond market at the end of the year, and there is still room for long-term yield to decline. The central bank established large redemption facilities for non-bank bonds on October 26; treasury bond yields have mostly declined in the past week. On November 6, the yield on 1-year/5-year/10-year/30-year treasury bonds was 1.17%/1.31%/1.59%/2.03%, respectively, up +0.4 BP/-4.7 BP/-6.3BP/-5.7BP from October 30, respectively. The median term of medium- and long-term interest rate debt/credit bond base calculated on November 6 was about 5.9 years and 4.4 years, which is 0.44 years/0.51 years longer than October 30, respectively.
SDIC Securities: Market recovery, risk limited to local
The market is recovering rapidly, and the risk is basically limited to a few players: 268 players expanded in the current period (232 in the previous period, growth rate slowed sharply) and 693 players narrowed (308 in the previous period). The ratio of the two fell from 0.75 to 0.39, and the median yield fell 1.29 bp to 1.6613%.
There are scattered concerns on the urban investment side. The 65 companies that expanded in the early stages, Zhongshan (11), Guizhou (10), and Tianjin (9) were in the top three, and the market still had concerns about weak qualification hotspots in the early stages; the industry side had no independent main line. Among the 136 companies that expanded in the early stages, non-bank finance accounted for 51 companies, mainly due to fluctuations in the valuation of asset management plans under the name of brokerage firms and trusts. The remaining 101 companies all had fluctuating valuations and no relevant attribution. The Zhuhai department is one of the few regions that are still expanding: 12 companies expanded and doubled in the current period. Interest spreads for a municipal state-owned group rose to 333.3 bps. The top 7 real gainers in the entire market last week were all from the Zhuhai family.