The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that due to the rise and fall of many external uncertainties, the comprehensive advantages of China's export-oriented economy are still leading the world this year, and brands still have the potential for continued growth when going overseas. From the perspective of domestic demand, the potential consumer base is still large, but the degree of matching between scenario and quality is still low. The bank sees that many industries have shown clear positive signs of improvement on the supply side, and all walks of life are becoming increasingly clear. Looking ahead to 2027, it is recommended to focus on areas such as medicine and beauty, hotels, foreign trade, and household AI applications.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
summary
The world's supply and demand pattern is already being reshaped. The ability of Chinese overseas enterprises to deal with tariffs, freight rates, exchange rates, etc. has improved markedly, and branded overseas companies deserve long-term attention. It is expected that the consumption tax reform and the improvement of employment treatment will push the price system back on track. Upgrading the quality-price ratio and supply-side reforms are key elements for leading enterprises in the segment to win.
Duty free section
The implementation of customs clearance in Hainan has opened up a new stage of duty-free outlying islands. The value of outlying islands duty-free channels continues to grow steadily, the value of airports, ports and other channels continues to be deeply cultivated. The gradual standardization of national tax supervision policies, the strong pattern of RMB, and mergers and acquisitions of high-quality assets are expected to promote development. The continuous implementation and optimization of leading duty-free core properties has brought about an increase in consumer experience and product supply. Recommended attention: China is exempt from China.
Travel, gaming
Travel demand remains resilient. Tourist destinations are in full bloom and holiday spending is concentrated. Supply-side optimization experiences and incremental vacation expectations can drive consumption transformation and increase. Domestic long-term destinations may benefit from disrupted outbound demand, and inbound tourism continues to grow. Focus on the operation and integration logic of high-quality assets in the travel chain; demand growth in the middle and high-end gaming sector is repeated, and GGR is under pressure under high base, and pay attention to the trend of rising dividend rates. Recommended attention: Jiuhua Travel, Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment.
Hotels
The supply-side growth rate is expected to gradually return to rationality within the year. 26Q3 RevPAR repair trend will slow down, Q4 RevPAR is expected to remain stable and improve, and supply chain operations and platform enabling capabilities will gradually become prominent. Industry differentiation shows that profits are growing faster than revenue. The current domestic chain rate space, supply inflection point, brand matrix improvement, overseas exploration, member refinement, and shareholder feedback are gradually approaching the development path of leading global hotels, or welcoming long-term dividends. Recommended attention: Huazhu Group-S, Yaduo, Jinjiang Hotel, First Travel Hotel.
dining
The supply-side optimization logic of the industry has been gradually verified and entered the deep-water zone. The performance of 26H1 leaders is divided and most are under pressure, and competition for cost performance is still fierce. The restaurant industry pursues a balance between gross margin and customer experience in the short term. In the medium to long term, it focuses on cyclical attributes, strong organization and execution, high-quality supply chain collaboration, quality-price ratio, reasonable pace of development, cash flow, and industrial chain bargaining power. Pay attention to possible cost disturbances such as increases in raw material prices and increases in labor costs. Recommended attention: Yum Sheng China, Gu Ming, Mixue Group, Bawang Tea Princess.
cosmetics
Structural differences in online channels have put pressure on the overall profits of the brand side. The winners and losers have moved from simply hitting scale to cost discipline and multi-brand structures, and the trend of gross sales differences on the brand side is diverging; at the same time, weakening demand and upstream transmission have also divided the manufacturing side's order boom. Focus on targets that match quantitative profit and improve gross sales margins. Recommended attention: Lin Qingxuan, Mao Geping, Runben Co., Ltd., Bethany, Perea, and Cox, which have potential on the brand side.
Aesthetic medicine
As competition intensified, the life cycle of a single product was shortened and the price market declined, and continued to be realized in brand-side reports; the 26Q3 revenue growth rate on the institutional side also declined somewhat, and the high growth rate converged. New materials such as Jinbo Biotech have passed a rapid harvest period, and adjustments have deepened under a high base; the decline in Aimeike's revenue has narrowed, and new products and pipelines are still awaiting verification. The growth of individual stocks is directly related to track location and store/product cycle. Recommended attention: institutions such as Duan Langzi Co., Ltd., Beautiful Tianyuan Healthcare, New Oxygen, and Aimeike and Sihuan Pharmaceuticals, which have a rich and continuous brand-side matrix.
General retail
The recovery on the demand side is still weak. The supply side focuses on emerging business formats, such as discount retail. Compared with the huge potential of the US and Japan markets, it is recommended to focus on: the boom is busy; El Niño may bring about drastic changes in the global crop industry. Stable demand can lead to a revaluation of continuous cash flow. It is recommended to focus on agricultural products.
Foreign trade and cross-border
Diesel and shipbuilding continue to prosper, and the trend of expanding the advantages of the Chinese shipbuilding industry will not be influenced by US foreign policy. The main participants in the industry have accumulated orders in hand for many years. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Sumeda, which has grown over a long period of time with high dividends and undervalued prices. The successive receipt of tariff rebates has also reflected the operational resilience of overseas companies. The impact on exchange rates is expected to decrease significantly in the second half of the year. From category going overseas to brands going overseas, a number of overseas companies are driving a number of overseas companies to all parts of the world. It is recommended to focus on Greenlink Technology, Anke Innovation, and Huakai Yibai.
Professional chains and professional markets
Consumer electronics terminals are affected by this round of AI-driven cost inflation, and the supply and demand pattern has drastically changed. The Apple series, which has a strong profit base, has shown good resilience, and the corresponding channel business has bucked the trend. It is recommended to pay attention to Ascend. Demand in the real estate aftermarket is relatively stable, the supply side of the industry is more thorough, and the cash flow of leading companies is gradually improving. It is recommended to pay attention to Macalline.